Preparing to give a speech at a meeting of wireless executives and investors, I will focus on the growing debate regarding today’s wireless industry. The question is this. Has wireless seen its best days or is growth continuing in new and different ways? Let’s set the record straight.
We have seen wireless leaders like AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon swing from a rapid growth track to a slower path. This has happened many times over the years. Let’s recall that wireless has been on a growth track since the 1970’s.
Since that time, growth has ebbed and flowed over time, depending on the year. You see, like waves on the beach, the wireless industry growth is like a staircase. As we climb, there is upward momentum, then growth pauses, until we take the next step.
That means, generally speaking, growth in wireless continues, but it is always shifting.
So, to better understand what we are facing today, we must pull the camera back to gain an accurate understanding of the evolution of the industry. We need to know where we came from yesterday, where we are today and where we are heading tomorrow.
5G means wireless growth has changed and expanded
Over decades, the wireless industry has moved from a brand-new service, then from analog to digital, then from 2G to 3G to 4G and now to 5G. And this staggered growth pattern will continue moving forward to 6G and beyond.
However, this time around, as we move to 5G, things are different on a variety of fronts.
Covid-19 or the coronavirus threw a wrench in the finely tuned wireless machine. This is still impacting the industry today in a variety of ways.
The economy, which was roaring, has not recovered yet. As the marketplace struggles with a weak economy today, users are looking for ways to save money.
This is causing downward pressure on growth, and this will continue until something changes for the better with the economy.
Weak economy is significantly impacting wireless growth
Today, because of inflation everything costs more. Many people are having trouble getting enough money to pay for the essentials. And as important as wireless is, it is not as crucial as food, shelter, medicine and the like.
At the same time, 5G is also the biggest move forward in the wireless industry has ever seen.
This generation of service does not only impact the wireless industry. It also impacts a growing number of other companies in other industries which use wireless in their growth plans as their industry and competitive marketplace also shifts.
Think automated driving, health tech, retail, smart cities, smart homes and so many other industries.
5G is the biggest growth story the wireless industry has ever seen
The move to 5G is very expensive for wireless networks and smartphone makers. Yet, bad economy or not, competitors need to upgrade just to keep up with the competition.
So, they are continuing to invest billions of dollars upgrading to 5G at a time when they are having a hard time increasing revenues because of it.
This will correct itself when the economy gets stronger, but today, that’s the reality. All of these factors and more are stressing the 5G wireless space.
AI, Chatbot, Generative AI, Quantum computing and wireless industry
Now, the next level of technology has begun its own growth wave. This will have a positive impact on the wireless industry.
Think about Artificial Intelligence, Chatbot, Generative AI, Quantum computing, AR, VR, Metaverse and more.
All these use the wireless industry to communicate. They use wireless and data networks as the nervous system. Wireless is a large and important part of how these new technologies will operate.
At the same time, think about how the smartphone, smart watches, tablets, computers, smart houses, smart cities and more continue to growth as they continue to upgrade.
Technological advancement is on fire today, and that growth will continue moving forward. That is great news for the wireless industry.
Growth in wireless service will come from these new areas. While traditional growth may be
slowing since just about everyone who wants wireless already has it, looking ahead growth will come from new areas.
Keeping wireless investors happy and intact is the challenge
Remember, wireless is the nervous system of our society going forward, the same way the telephone was during the past century.
Showing growth to hang onto investors is another story.
The path AT&T and Verizon took in recent years was a disaster. They acquired WarnerMedia with CNN and Warner Brothers Studio, and AOL and Yahoo! and started down a strange new path.
I have to give them credit for the effort. However, they were on the wrong track.
Qualcomm, Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia build wireless networks
Thank goodness they finally woke up and got back to the basics of building the wireless future we all count on them for.
Qualcomm, Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, Intel and more are all focused on new growth opportunities in wireless, worldwide.
They also see growth in new areas like AI, Chatbot, Generative AI and more.
Going forward, growth will come from several new areas, both on the business side and consumer side of the equation.
Business Services, Private Wireless, 5G Home Internet are growth areas
Business Services are becoming a real growth story for the wireless industry.
Private Wireless is a good example. This time however, private wireless is also full of competition and things are only getting hotter. That means the competitive playing field will be harder than AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon are used to.
Consider how Betacom is partnering with companies like Qualcomm and US Cellular to provide private cellular to their business customers. And I fully expect more partnerships to develop over time, making the segment even more competitive.
Betacom partnering with Qualcomm and US Cellular on private wireless
On the consumer side there is talk about 5G Home Internet connectivity. Consumers can get high-speed Internet wirelessly. This could develop into a real growth opportunity for the carriers.
This new technology of course would go head-to-head with the current Internet provider like Xfinity, Spectrum and Altice.
That means these companies will have to come up with a solution to this rapidly growing threat.
So, as you can see, growth for the wireless networks will only continue on its stairway heading up. Each step has its own and very different reality.
Wireless growth will continue as conduit for new technology sectors
Yesterday’s growth story is in the past. Today’s growth story is different, as is tomorrow’s. Wireless is a moving target. And senior executives need to fully understand the track toward future growth.Â
As long as the networks stay on the right growth track, they will continue to become more important as the wireless space matures.
In this exciting new world of technology, there are still new areas and new companies which will steal the thunder and capture the attention of the media and investor community.
Wireless companies need to develop winning marketing campaigns to grow
This is why it is crucial that all the established wireless players develop a new take on things. They need to stay on the radar of the growth-oriented communities including customers, workers and investors.
Going forward, will wireless companies be like Apple, Google, Amazon and Meta, or will they be like Motorola or Blackberry. There is a huge difference and making the right choice on strategy is crucial.
This is how traditional wireless companies will find real growth going forward. Some will be successful, while others will not.
Growth will continue for companies who stay with the growth wave. So, make sure your company is on the right track. The industry needs to stay focused on their role as new technology continues to change our world using our wireless networks.
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