Mobile World Congress coming to Barcelona end of February 2024
Wireless has been with us as an industry for decades. During that time, it has always been an industry in transition. Mobile World Congress in Barcelona is coming at the end of February, and it always offers a good read of the current state of wireless and what’s coming. So, let’s take a look at what is coming next for investors, consumers, business customers and workers.
First, investment in the 5G wireless rollout continues, while we are also preparing for 6G. Yet, while billions of dollars are being invested by networks on an ongoing basis, the industry is still searching for new growth waves for more income and profitability.
In years past, #MWC24 showed us how the entire wireless industry was on the same page. However, today things are different. Some wireless networks, network builders and more are heading in new directions.
The urge for growth is always up front to reward their investors. The same is true in 2024.
New wireless growth opportunities highlighted at MWC 24
Sometimes the industry is on target. Other times, not so much.
Remember several years ago when AT&T acquired Time Warner, CNN and Warner Brothers Studio and created WarnerMedia. Or when Verizon acquired AOL and Yahoo. They both wanted to expand beyond wireless into entertainment and news. Both were bold, even exciting moves. However, both were also a complete disaster.
Today we see new growth and direction, and this time the path looks much better and stronger. That does not mean it will be smooth sailing. The wireless road ahead, while growing, is also rocky.
In 2024 we continue to see different companies, in different sectors, from different countries as the industry expands and moves forward.
Some of these are wireless companies, while others are using wireless to transform themselves and their industries.
Think of today’s version of wireless growth and how it is expanding to other industries on a similar track to several years ago with Uber and Lyft. As the speeds increased from one G to the next, these two companies jumped in and transformed the taxi and limousine industry.
Today, it seems many companies in different industries are using wireless, along with AI, IoT, the cloud and more to also transform their industry and offerings. This is causing all competitors to also step-up and meet the new challenge.
So, let’s take a look at and discuss some of these new areas of growth for 2024.
FWA wireless home internet challenges wireline broadband
Fixed Wireless Access is one area of growth and is being adopted by the wireless industry. FWA is the technology that lets wireless carriers offer wireless broadband.
While this is a growth opportunity for wireless, at the same time it is a competitive threat to the telephone companies and the cable television industry.
Telephone and cable TV are competing with FWA
Today, the cable TV industry is losing both cable TV and broadband customers. In fact, smaller cable TV providers are down to roughly ten or twenty percent market share. That’s why they are beginning to pull out of the cable TV business altogether. And broadband is next.
I expect this trend to continue going forward, even with the larger competitors like Comcast Xfinity, Charter Spectrum, Altice, Cox and others.
Telephone companies have also been losing market share in the wireline voice telephone business and wireline broadband as well.
Could the telephone and cable TV companies move into this same wireless space?
Private wireless is another growth opportunity
Private wireless is another, new growth opportunity. This is a more secure service beginning to be offered by a growing variety of wireless networks and network builders.
One kind of competitor are traditional wireless carriers who are beginning to offer this for their enterprise customers. These are companies like AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, US Cellular and more.
While I see private wireless playing an increasingly important role going forward, the road ahead does seem bumpy.
Private wireless competitors brief me to get on my radar
Over time, several competitors have brought me in, briefed me, showed how they are better or different and tried to get me to become a believer in what they are doing, hoping I would talk about them and write about them.
Over time, while I have become convinced private wireless as a whole has real growth potential, there are several factors which need to be fixed first.
First, there are multiple kinds of competitors. Some offer more while others offer less.
AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, US Cellular, C-Spire in private wireless
The problem is different terms are used by competitors making it difficult for any enterprise customer to compare.
Wireless carriers are public wireless services offering this new kind of private wireless technology.
There are also plenty of other large and small competitors. Companies which can build an independent private wireless network for the enterprise customer.
HPE, Juniper Networks, Betacom, Qualcomm, US Cellular, Boldyn, Edzcom
Betacom is a smaller private wireless competitor who has already struck deals with Qualcomm, and US Cellular to let them provide private wireless services. These partnerships let them all benefit by working together.
HPE is another example. They recently announced they will be acquiring Juniper Networks. While Juniper has proprietary technology, they do not have the deep pockets of an incumbent player like HPE. That has put this smaller player under significant financial stress as this field grows. Getting together is a way both can win going forward.
Boldyn Networks is acquiring the private wireless business Edzcom from Spanish tower company Cellnext Telecom.
Globalstar, Ruckus, Huawei, Ericsson, NTT Docomo, Cisco, Intel, Samsung
I see the pace of growth changing as partnerships and M&A are starting to pick up and I expect to see more of these kinds of deals going forward.
There are plenty of other private wireless competitors, large and small, including Ericsson, NTT Docomo, Cradlepoint, Cisco, Nokia, Intel, Samsung, Huawei, ZTE, Ruckus Celona, Federated Wireless and many others as well.
Satellite service providers are also starting their growth curve. These are companies like Globalstar, which Apple is using for their SOS emergency service. Or SpaceX working the T-Mobile, or Starlink.
Satellite, AI, IoT, Cloud are other areas for wireless growth
Satellite providers are entering the wireless space. These companies are run by powerhouses like Elon Musk from Tesla, Jeff Bezos from Amazon and Paul Jacobs from Qualcomm.
AI, IoT and the cloud are more areas for growth. These technologies will improve the wireless experience for the provider and the customer.
They will also let us create new services and growth opportunities going forward.
Solution to help enterprises speed up adoption of private wireless
All of these are new growth sectors which are just starting. This should excite investors and companies.
That being said, there is a problem with private wireless.
Let me offer a solution for this slowdown.
Private wireless is a new idea, and the average customer doesn’t know how all the pieces fit together and compare. They use different terms and that gets confusing.
Since a confused mind says no, that slows the rollout of private wireless.
So, in my opinion the private wireless industry needs to settle on a common language and direction to help the buyers understand and compare.
This solution will help customers better understand this industry and grow more quickly than on the current, piecemeal approach.
Let executives try private wireless step-by-step to get comfortable
What I mean is let enterprise executives choose to start slow then grow. Let them partially add private wireless to their enterprise. This is a slower and more controllable experience for the user.
This step-by-step, piecemeal approach may be easier than the all or nothing solution. There is less of a risk in the mind of the customer.
This would let the customers experiment with new technology and get used to it all, at their own pace.
Some will fully jump in more quickly, while others will take their time. Over time, they can safely move more traffic from the old to the new way and never lose control.
Wireless growth opportunities in 2024 and beyond
That being said, I see private wireless as a real growth opportunity. Creating a clear and understandable environment for the customer is a key to success.
In 2024, wireless remains one of the most important growth industries we have ever created. It always changes and takes on new directions for growth. And it will remain that way going forward.
That doesn’t mean there won’t be bumps in the road. New thinking, new ideas, new technology will always be introduced to challenge yesterday and bring new opportunities for tomorrow.
