Dell’Oro said that the long-term forecast for O-RAN remains positive
Open RAN (O-RAN) revenue is set to decline in 2023, following an impressive increase between 2019 and 2022, according to a recently published report by Dell’Oro Group.
The report highlighted that market conditions will remain challenging over the near-term but the long-term forecast for O-RAN remains positive.
The research company expects O-RAN revenue to account for 20-30% of worldwide RAN revenue by 2028, up from 7-10% in 2024.
In July 2023, Dell’Oro predicted O-RAN revenue would account for 15-20% per cent of the overall RAN market by 2027.
“Current growth deceleration combined with the increased acceptance that O-RAN is not some kind of magic solution that will significantly alter barriers to entry or overall market concentration, is prompting more questions about the rationale behind O-RAN,” said Stefan Pongratz, vice president and analyst at the Dell’Oro Group. “The fundamental assumptions shaping the role O-RAN will play in this RAN journey have not changed. Over time, operators will incorporate more virtualization, intelligence, automation and O-RAN into their RAN roadmaps. However, the business case for multi-vendor RAN is less compelling,” continued Pongratz.
Dell’Oro also highlighted that O-RAN revenues have been revised upward in the outer part of the forecast period to reflect the improved pipeline in the U.S. market. The North America saw a deceleration in O-RAN adoption in 2023 but is set to lead the O-RAN market over the forecast period, the research firm added.
The report also highlighted that Europe’s O-RAN revenue share is projected to nearly double between 2023 and 2028, without providing hard numbers.
“The mix between multi- and single-vendor RAN remains mostly unchanged. The analysis in the report shows that single-vendor O-RAN is expected to drive the lion’s share of the O-RAN market. Multi-vendor O-RAN is projected to account for 5-10% of total RAN revenues by 2028,” Dell’Oro said.