Over the past 35 years I have been privileged to have worked with and advised countless CEOs and CMOs as an Industry Analyst, advisor and columnist. Over that time, I have had many conversations and learned so much, not only about these companies, but about competition and movement of the entire industry. Things like what’s up, what’s down and what’s coming next. So, please allow me to share a few key points that I learned from these industry giants over time that can be very valuable to you.
In this column I will not mention names and companies because I appreciate their honesty, so I will not either reward or embarrass anyone. I have worked with so many major players and the lessons they taught me over time are irreplaceable.
First, we must recognize that even though many wireless, telecom and technology companies seem to always be on a rapid growth trajectory, a closer look shows others who have either crested or are even on the downturn.
Second, I have found that corporate leaders are not all the same. Like in every other aspect of life, some are better in some areas than others. Finding the right executive at the right time is key. In other words, the same executive could perform well when the marketplace is in one phase and not in another.
It’s like a wartime President and a peacetime President. There are different strengths, and the Board of Directors needs to choose the right person at the right time.
Choosing the right leaders for the right time is key.
Wireless Industry Analyst and columnist says the future is changing
Having countless conversations over more than three decades has been a real education to me. These conversations have educated my views over time and given me the opportunity to see the flow of movement of the industry.
It’s like the book and movie “The Legend of Bagger Vance.” This is a story about golf, but more so, about reading the continual movement and flow of the living golf course. How it breaths and flows.Â
One thing I learned is everything always changes. Every growth curve is alive and has a lifespan. Some are short while others are long, but they all rise, crest then ultimately fall.
Reading the course or the marketplace is key. Knowing which companies are on the rising side of the growth curve is key to success for every senior executive, worker, customer, investor or the media.
Every technology grows, crests then fall on the growth curve
Example, traditional technologies like telephone and cable TV have seen their growth curve rise, then peak and are now on the falling side.
Newer technologies like wireless and streaming are taking their place and are still growing, although these are not new sectors any longer. That means the rapid growth of years ago is slowing. The good news is they have not crested yet, or reversed, but are they growing as they once were?
Wireless keeps getting upgraded, getting faster and more immediate.
However, while it has always grown, this time, even though 5G is more important than ever because it involves more than just wireless companies, it has not resulted in the same level or pace of growth. Not yet anyway.
Recently, private wireless has entered the space. Some enterprise customers have adopted it, and while it is on the radar of the business community, most are taking it slow.
Today, most companies continue to use Wi-Fi and public wireless. That being said, while it is surprising, enterprise customers are not even upgrading their Wi-Fi as they have in previous generations.
The marketplace is full of ebbs and flows and the pace of change is continually changing and flowing.
Wireless, telecom, AI, private wireless, FWA, mobile broadband
Next, FWA or Fixed Wireless Access is new technology that lets wireless carriers offer mobile broadband or wireless broadband services.
This new idea is starting to give traditional, wireline cable TV and telephone company broadband services a run for its money.
You see, while this is good news for the wireless industry, which was looking for greener pastures for growth, the competition is traditional wireline broadband from cable TV and telephone companies.
That’s why going forward we could see traditional providers of broadband become stressed because wireless broadband costs the customer less and is picking up steam.
Plus, in today’s weak economy, customers are looking for ways to save money and this also increases the pressure on cable TV and telephone companies with their wireline broadband.
This is the current state of today’s communications industry. Yesterday’s leading services are giving way to new ideas from new services.
Companies who were showing strong growth a decade or two ago, now are facing new competitive stress like they have never seen before.
Every product or service continually changes and updates
So, traditional services are being replaced by new technology. This is the same threat that has always transformed our world.
Traditional cable TV is going away. Major cable television providers have less than 50% market share. Some smaller providers have less than 10% and they are leaving the cable TV arena altogether, focusing on broadband and wireless.
Traditional wire line telephone or POTS (Plain Old Telephone Service) is also fading away.
So, the writing is on the wall. This is the urgent matter of today’s technology marketplace.
Shifting marketplace creates both growth challenges and opportunities
This creates real stress for yesterday’s leaders in all these different spaces. This kind of stress is not new. This is how America was built. Change rules. Change has always ruled.
After years and waves of consolidation, today there are fewer and larger competitors. When they are no longer growing, this has an enormous potential negative impact on executives, workers and investors.
Change at these giants takes longer and occurs slowly.
I recommend everyone focus on the growing side of the growth wave. Traditional companies need to not look backward but look forward to new technology and growth.
That does not mean suddenly turning off what has worked in the past, but this is what has to happen gradually as we move forward.
Even companies who have crested, may create the next growth wave, and show growth. The choice is theirs. We’ve seen this same predicament before. This is how business evolves.
