Times are changing. Then again, they are always changing. Over the years, I have given countless briefings at a variety of meetings for CEOs, CMOs, the Board of Directors, employees, customers and investors. As an Industry Analyst, one of my responsibilities is to help clarify the confused mind and the ever-changing industry.
Company and industry leadership needs to see what is coming, so they can successfully prepare and steer their company and the entire industry toward what is coming.
There are three kinds of companies: leaders, followers and those who should just get out of the way.
Only some companies are leaders. They steer their company and the larger industry in its new direction for growth. They have the guts to lead, to pave new paths, to take the arrows and to guide the industry to the next level.
Next, are the larger group of followers. These too can be industry giants. After the leaders blaze new trails through the brush and create the new path for growth, the followers move.
Finally, are the companies who are like deer frozen in the headlights. They should just get out of the way of the moving change wave.
CEOs need to see tomorrow to keep their company on growth wave
The CEO is one tough job. Not only do they have to keep investors happy, but they also must keep customers happy, plus regulators. In fact, they must also keep the media and the workers happy.
That being said, the ground beneath them is always changing. That means every CEO must be a soothsayer and see what the world will look like years ahead of time, so they can prepare and so they can stay with the changing growth-curve.
Without being able to see tomorrow, the growth-wave will move forward and take some companies along with it. However, it will also leave others behind in the dust.
We have seen plenty examples of all types of companies. How past industry leaders can lose touch with the marketplace. As the growth wave moves ahead leaving them behind in the dust.
Think about the rise and fall of the growth wave with companies like Motorola, Nokia, Blackberry, Palm and others when the iPhone and Android came along and transformed the smartphone segment.
Motorola, Nokia, Blackberry led smartphones until iPhone and Android
Sometimes a company who rode the growth wave up and down again, can move step-to-step to the next generation. Other times it takes new thinking and new leadership to leverage the next growth opportunity.
Even companies who get left behind can recover. Remember when Apple iPhone entered the picture and Verizon said no. AT&T said yes and that gave them the leadership position for years. Then ultimately every competitor sells the iPhone.
AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon have seen wireless success and failure
Or when AT&T and Verizon embraced wireless data as the industry moved to the world of 2G and 3G. When analog gave way to digital. While AT&T and Verizon embraced this change and grew, T-Mobile just didn’t get it. They opted out.
T-Mobile missed the moving growth-curve. While they eventually recovered, that mistake put them behind the Eight Ball for years.
You see, at any point in time we do not know what the next step looks like. This as a continuing process.
We must continue to throw all sorts of new ideas against the wall. Only some of them stick. Most fall off.
What the next growth-wave looks like for wireless, telecom, pay TV
Industry leaders develop one or more of these new ideas. Finally, one or a few key ideas move forward and become the next growth wave.
Sometimes the industry gets it right and we all win. Other times they take a chance, then fail.
Still, other times ideas for products and services have a limited lifespan. They are hot for a while, but quickly fade when the next, big thing comes along replacing them.
Remember the disaster of the past decade. Both AT&T and Verizon trying to find new growth ventured outside of wireless and acquired other companies in other industries. Companies like DirecTV, WarnerMedia, Warner Brothers Studios, CNN, AOL and Yahoo!
I remember attending the AT&T Analyst Briefing at Warner Brothers Studio in Hollywood. The dream and the vision were outstanding. However, neither AT&T nor Verizon could ever make these dreams into reality.
This is an example of how the desire to push the industry in new directions does not always work.
At the time, T-Mobile was struggling for survival. Then they brought in a new CEO, and they eventually started to grow. While AT&T and Verizon were lost in the tumultuous moves they were making, T-Mobile recovered and is still strong.
FWA, 5G Wireless Home Internet, Private wireless, AI and more
The next question every CEO is asking today is this… what is coming next? What’s the next growth wave?
Traditional telephone and cable TV have seen their growth wave peak and fall over the past decade or two.
There are some new ideas like streaming, private wireless, FWA and 5G Wireless Home Internet and Artificial Intelligence which are capturing the imagination.
Wireless, telecom, cable TV change has been delayed too long
The problem is these industries should have taken to these new paths years ago. They are starting late. That means development will take even longer.
Let’s hope the CEOs of these industries are throwing enough new ideas against the wall to see what sticks.
Even though the past decade or two have been rough, recovery and growth can still occur. I believe it will occur. Just looking at T-Mobile disaster and recovery as an example.
The problem is Verizon is still struggling and AT&T, while doing better than the past few years, is not in top form either.
And we still do not know for sure the growth path of these industries going forward. The paths they are taking are not really exciting investors and customers. Not yet anyway.
Europe is having this same problem as well.
Wireless has a unique advantage. It is a growing industry. Plus, it is growing beyond wireless only.
It will be the network that will connect different companies in different industries. It will use new technologies like AI and will be what connects the entire world, both business and consumers.
So, wireless is key. It will remain in power and continue to spread. That being said, growth will come from new areas. I can see the future being rapidly growing. It’s the current time we still have to get through.
