IDC revised down slightly the expected growth rate of gen AI devices, but it’s still more than 340% YoY
International Data Corporation (IDC) has upped its smartphone forecast for worldwide smartphone shipments from growth of 4% for the year, to 5.8%, reaching 1.23 billion units.
“The 12% growth in the first quarter, followed by 9% growth last quarter, has brought improved optimism about how 2024 will play out in the second half of the year,” the research firm said in a release, citing the adoption of generative AI smartphones in the premium device market along with rapid growth of affordable Android smartphones in emerging markets.
“The improved forecast for 2024 cements the road to recovery for the smartphone market, driven by stronger growth for Android devices in China and emerging markets,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
Popal said that the Android smartphone market is expected to grow nine times faster than that of iOS—but added that “there is a potential upside to the iOS forecast with a lot depending on how well the demonstrated GenAI use cases play out in the upcoming iPhone 16 launch and how soon Apple can establish local AI partnerships in China.”
Earlier this month, IDC put out numbers saying that genAI smartphones were expected to represent 19% of the overall annual smartphone market by the end of this year. It has revised that number down slightly, to 18%—which still reflects a very high rate of growth.
“Although GenAI smartphones are relatively new in the market, premium flagships will continue to adopt GenAI features to help separate them from the pack,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “IDC expects a robust 344% growth for GenAI smartphones capturing 18% share of the total market by end of 2024, as most flagships will adopt some on-device GenAI features. However, GenAI-capable devices won’t come cheap initially, as the average selling price for these GenAI smartphones will be more than double the cost of non-GenAI capable devices, further driving the premiumization trend.”
