LONDON-Cellular subscriber numbers in nine Middle East countries are set to overtake the number of fixed-line customers by the end of 2002, the latest report from the Arab Advisory Group revealed.
Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), are expected to see their cellular sectors outstrip fixed-line market share during the next few months, according to the report titled “A comparative analysis of the cellular and mainlines markets in the Arab World.”
The fixed-line markets in all 11 Middle East countries studied in the report currently operate under a monopoly, while six of the countries-Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco and Syria-have a duopoly in their mobile markets.
“Between the years 1998 and 2001, the total number of cellular subscribers in the 11 examined countries was lower than that of mainlines. However, the total number of cellular subscribers is expected to exceed that of mainlines by 2002,” the report said.
“By the end of 2002, the number of cellular subscribers will have exceeded that of mainlines in nine of the 11 examined countries (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE).”
Using the Market Share Index as the basis for its calculations, the report showed that the cellular sector in the UAE topped the table in both the cellular and fixed-line penetration. The Market Share Index is calculated by dividing the share of total subscribers in each country by the share of total population of each country from the total population of the 11 countries. The higher the score the better the development status of the market, penetration wise. A score of less than 1 indicates some underdevelopment in the market.
On the Cellular Market Share Index, the UAE was first by a wide margin scoring 5.38. Bahrain was second with a score of 3.98, followed by Kuwait (3.87), Qatar (2.72), Lebanon (1.88), Morocco (1.52), Jordan (1.46), Oman (1.2), Saudi Arabia (1.12), Egypt (0.51) and Syria (0.1).
As for the Mainline Market Share Index, the UAE also topped the ranks with a score of 2.96. Second was Qatar (2.54), Bahrain (2.3), Lebanon (2.04), Kuwait (1.95), Saudi Arabia (1.42), Jordan (1.19), Syria (0.98), Egypt (0.93), Oman (0.85), and Morocco (0.35).
Countries studied in the report include Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the UAE.
