Analyst Angle: Phone Wars: Apple vs. RIM vs. Microsoft + HTC or HP

Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly feature, Analyst Angle. We’ve collected a group of the industry’s leading analysts to give their outlook on the hot topics in the wireless industry. In the coming weeks look for columns from Current Analysis’ Peter Jarich, NPD Group’s Ross Rubin, and more.
While the headline of this column brings back memories of “Star Wars,” I’m thinking more along the lines of Gene Roddenberry’s Star Trek — or more accurately, his more obscure “Earth: Final Conflict” series. In that series they had a cellphone called a “Global,” which was the best vision of a future cellphone I’ve ever seen. The Star Trek stuff was more glorified walkie-talkies but with the Global you had something very much like a future iPhone with a flexible screen, though your primary interaction was voice and not a keyboard, or touch for that matter, and Telepresence (or high-resolution video conferencing) was core to the offering.
Why this is important is that the vision of the future for the cellphone is not yet set and Apple, RIM, and Microsoft seem to have different visions. What results will likely be a blend, but I still think closer to the idea of the “Global” than any of these folks currently have. Let’s take a moment to chat about each.
Apple: iPod at the core
The iPhone is basically a next-generation iPod with phone features. Its strength is multimedia and as long as you can live inside iTunes for content it provides one of the easiest-to-use media solutions in the market. Its secondary strength is having what is arguably the best browser on a cellphone, giving its users the ability to — much like Roddenberry’s Global — have a view of the Web.
Its weakness is it isn’t a great phone and it kind of sucks at anything having to do with text, and connecting it to back-end services, with the exception of AT&T’s wonderful video e-mail., is just not happening yet. One phone, no matter how good, isn’t broad enough for everyone. Given that phones in the smartphone class are most often purchased by companies for employees, these are all critical weaknesses standing in front Apple’s vision to the future. In the end it will be nearly impossible for an IT manager to take a product that clearly came from iPod roots and make it their company standard. But Apple is putting Notes on the iPhone and you have to wonder if Exchange is that far behind it.
RIM: Enterprise DNA
Research in Motion in sharp contrast to Apple has focused their device solidly on the enterprise, but it is the least like Roddenberry’s vision as a result. Its strength is on being a good phone and a great text device, shinning particularly brightly when used as a portable e-mail terminal. And RIM shrugged off Apple in 2007, growing strongly because the iPhone simply was no threat to RIM’s market, at least not yet.
But a big part of RIM is their Enterprise Server, which is looking more and more like Novell Netware in that it is becoming largely redundant in a world where e-mail systems are easily accessed through the Web using a variety of ever more powerful clients. Another weakness is they don’t really get consumer marketing, something Apple excels at, and that will put them on the defensive should Apple figure out a way to solve their text problem. RIM’s sustaining weakness is this server but, when you take into account device management, it could become a strength if other tools don’t eclipse it. Marketing remains a big problem for them, but they could do what HP and Dell have done and hire folks who can fix that problem.
Microsoft + HTC or HP: The coming best of both worlds
Microsoft works through a variety of partners, with HTC and HP standing out as being the two most likely to break open the market for them. HTC is also working with Google, but it is as yet too early to fully flesh out that offering so I’m focusing in HP. HP’s rumored “Oak” platform comes the closest to blending the advantages of the iPhone with the advantages of the BlackBerry while avoiding the disadvantages of RIM’s redundant enterprise server. HP’s enterprise presence is vastly more powerful than RIM’s is, and much of the device marketing is done by ex-Apple marketing folks who have demonstrated excellence for much of 2007. Microsoft’s mobile platform is the most capable in the segment technically, and because it crosses phone lines it provides the greatest hardware choice.
Unfortunately, the weakness is also Microsoft’s Mobile 6 platform’s user experience which has, compared with Apple, a less compatible browser and less stunning interface. And, compared with both RIM and Apple, it has a more complex consumer experience (complex being a bad thing). However, with the Media Smart Server HP demonstrated, they could improve a Microsoft offering dramatically. And HTC demonstrated (with the HTC Touch) you could fix these problems.
Calling the Winner
Each player has unique strengths and weaknesses, and the winner will be the firm, or partnership, that mitigates their weaknesses and leverages their strengths most effectively. In the end though, I think what we’ll end up with is a lot closer to Roddenberry’s vision than we now realize, and that means someone else could still enter and steal the contest. The reality is neither RIM nor Apple are broad enough, yet, to own this future. Microsoft is broad enough, but they have to rely on cooperation to get create the perfect offering and, so far, that has been elusive. This all goes a long way to explaining why all eyes are on Google right now.
Questions or comments about this column? Please e-mail Iain at renderle@enderlegroup.com or RCR Wireless News at rcrwebhelp@crain.com.