Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly feature, Analyst Angle. We’ve collected a group of the industry’s leading analysts to give their outlook on the hot topics in the wireless industry.
First, Craig’s List literally destroyed classified ads by offering free local classified ads in most major cities around the world. Wham! Overnight, the lucrative classified advertising departments of most newspapers were put out of business. “Check Craig’s List” has become a thread of basic, accepted behavior when looking to find something most typically found in classified ads.
Then, basic distribution and advertising in daily newspapers came under assault with free web sites that offered much less expensive (lower revenue) online advertising. But newspapers kept producing their print editions since they still generated a lot of revenue. Now, with Apple Inc.’s iPad just a few months old and an onslaught of tablets hitting the market in the next six months, you’d expect that at least one major newspaper publisher would likely reorganize itself to adapt to the new world of digital publishing on tablets. In fact, two have just made such an announcement.
On Aug. 27, USA Today announced it was reorganizing to focus on digital publishing – primarily on tablets – and “de-focus” on print. This is just the first of a whole series of similar announcements that I expect we’ll see over the next couple of years. And, on Sept. 10, the New York Times announced that “at some point in the future” they will cease production of the newspaper.
Make no mistake here: digital publishing, primarily through tablets, is going to sweep through the entire publishing industry. There’s no going back as in “Oh, we tried digital publishing on tablets and it didn’t work out. We’re going back into print publishing. It was all just a fad.” That is never going to happen.
I actually like reading a newspaper. It’s good to hold it in your hand, flip from page to page. There’s a tactile feedback and your eyes can view material that is often 30-inch wide and 20-inch tall. You can snack on one headline and then another and deep dive on stuff that you find interesting. I keep thinking, “Nah, they’ll never stop producing newspapers.” Now, with the USA Today announcement, I think we’ll be seeing the dying of a multihundred-year-old industry during our lifetimes.
The reason that publishers are migrating to digital tablet publishing is simple: it’s where the readers are. And readers enable publishers to make money. Many young people are going to grow up with one or more tablets in their family. Soon, everyone will have a tablet from young kids learning to read through adults. Yes, print – primarily in the form of specialty magazines – will still be around for quite a while; however, newspapers likely will simply go digital.
There are a number of advantages to newspapers publishing on tablets. First, it’s cheaper. It’s also immediate so that if a breaking story develops, publishers can update it on your tablet almost immediately. Tablets enable integration of audio and video. Tablets can more easily be searched, and you can browse by sections more quickly than by using the paper. Finally, you don’t have to wash the ink off your hands when you’re done reading a tablet.
I have to hand it to USA Today for making such a bold move. Their reader app for the iPad is excellent and very intuitive (better than the Wall Street Journal or New York Times in my opinion). I often enjoyed getting a copy of USA Today under the door at most Marriott Hotels I visited over the years and then couldn’t read it except when online. The iPad experience is much better than via the web – much more like reading an actual paper.
While the New York Times announcement doesn’t mention a specific date, I think it’s likely within five years.
Newspapers are valuable. But in a growing mobile and digital world, the newspaper is going to morph and become re-born on digital tablets with integrated ads and multimedia. Long live the tablet-based newspaper!
J. Gerry Purdy, Ph.D. is Principal Analyst, Mobile & Wireless, MobileTrax L.L.C. As a nationally recognized industry authority, he focuses on monitoring and analyzing emerging trends, technologies and market behavior in the mobile computing and wireless data communications industry in North America. Dr. Purdy is an ‘edge of network’ analyst looking at devices, applications and services as well as wireless connectivity to those devices.
Dr. Purdy provides critical insights regarding mobile and wireless devices, wireless data communications and connection to the infrastructure that powers the data in the wireless handheld. He is author of the column Inside Mobile & Wireless that provides industry insights and is read by over 100,000 people a month.
Dr. Purdy continues to be affiliated with the venture capital industry as well. He currently is Managing Director, Yosemite Ventures. And, he spent five years as a Venture Advisor for Diamondhead Ventures in Menlo Park where he identified, attracted and recommended investments in emerging companies in the mobile and wireless. He has had a prior affiliation with East Peak Advisors and, subsequently, following their acquisition, with FBR Capital Markets.
For more than 16 years, Dr. Purdy has been consulting, speaking, researching, networking, writing and developing state-of-the-art concepts that challenge people’s mind-sets and developing new ways of thinking and forecasting in the mobile computing and wireless data arenas. Often quoted, his ideas and opinions are followed closely by thought leaders in the mobile & wireless industry. He is author of three books.
Dr. Purdy currently is a member of the Program Advisory Board of the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) that produces CES, one of the largest trade shows in the world. He is a frequent moderator at CTIA conferences and GSM Mobile World Congress. He also is a member of the Board of the Atlanta Wireless Technology Forum.
