Linux: freedom is another word for ‘do-it-yourself’ : Development costs, and cost savings, cited in new report

Everyone, it seems, wants a piece of the Linux action.
That includes Symbian OS champion Nokia Corp., which recently joined the Linux Foundation, and IMS Research, which just joined its brethren in issuing a report on Linux’ pros and cons and the dynamics of market uptake. According to IMS Research, Nokia’s interest in Linux-used in its Internet Tablet product-is a defensive move to ensure it can meet operator requirements in virtually any market. Meanwhile, the Finnish vendor remains committed to its S60 platform, based on the Symbian OS.
IMS Research found that the Linux operating system-open-source software-is on a trajectory that will guarantee it a place among rivals Symbian, now the clear market leader, and Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Mobile. All three operating systems are likely to experience significant growth as the smartphone market grows during the next four years, said Alison Bogle, author of the IMS Research report. Under that scenario, however, Symbian’s market share may erode from a dominant 70 percent of the smartphone market last year-largely driven by Nokia’s success with its smartphones, or “multimedia computing devices”-to perhaps less than 50 percent by 2011 on triple its current volumes.
“The momentum towards Linux is huge,” Bogle said. “So any company looking into it is being proactive. They’d be remiss if they weren’t examining it and deciding how to address it.”
The streamlining of platforms in use by both handset vendors and network operators is in part driving adoption of Linux, according to Bogle.
“It’s a balancing act for both the network operators and the handset manufacturers,” Bogle said. “What are operators willing to accept on the networks? Are manufacturers ready to invest in open-source platforms, particularly if the operator is not fully on board?”
For handset vendors, the idea is to streamline costs by supporting fewer platforms, while meeting the operators’ needs. Operators are starting to standardize their platforms to reduce costs as well, according to Bogle. For example, Japanese telecom giant NTT DoCoMo Inc. has said it will standardize on Symbian, Microsoft and Linux.
Open-source platforms and the applications that run on them, however, do not necessarily fit into many network operators’ current control over the applications-and resulting revenue streams-that run on their network. DoCoMo has a reputation for opening its network to third-party applications.
Motorola Inc. said last year that its goal is to have more than half its devices running on Linux in less than two years. It plans to employ Windows Mobile for its enterprise offerings and use whatever OS network operators require.
Pros, cons of Linux
Naturally, there are plenty of pros and cons to Linux and to its forecasted challenge to Symbian.
Bogle’s report provides a list of “advantages and disadvantages;” both columns include “cost.”
“Costs were cited high on both lists,” Bogle said. “Linux offers the ability to reduce costs once you’ve got everything in place and running smoothly-the product development cycle is shortened, handsets can use a lot of the same components across devices. The disadvantage in terms of cost is because development costs are high in terms of time and money for companies seeking to develop complete solutions in-house. This is why we feel that Linux solutions will be a mix of commercial components plus in-house development.”
The initial development time and cost to create a working Linux OS have been under-estimated, according to the IMS analyst. Those savings come later. The selling point for Windows Mobile and Symbian is that they’re turn-key solutions. The development effort for Linux threatens to produce a fragmented market with different flavors of the OS, Bogle said. Her research indicated that leadership and a degree of cohesiveness may emerge from the handful of Linux organizations currently at work.
“You either pay a reasonable licensing cost (to use Symbian or Windows ) or you do the labor,” Jerry Panagrossi, VP of Symbian’s U.S. operations, said last year on the topic of OS development costs.
In direct response to the IMS Research findings, Panagrossi said in an e-mail: “Symbian market share has oscillated steadily between 69 percent and 74 percent over the past eight quarters, contradicting earlier analysts’ predictions of future share losses to Linux and Windows Mobile. In the 3G smartphone segment, Symbian OS dominates with over 90-percent global market share, according to Canalys. We welcome market research firms to share their data and analyses publicly so industry players may review and debate them.”
“People have to keep in mind that the smartphone market is growing,” said Bogle. “So while Symbian’s percentage of it may drop, its numbers may continue to grow. We still see them as the market leader. It’s just natural that with Windows Mobile and Linux in the mix, Symbian’s market share erodes over time.”