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Data mining techniques not an exact science

In these early days of mobile data, the wireless industry is scrambling for timely, accurate data about consumer behavior. But it’s finding that such information can be difficult to come by.

Mobile content measurement firm Telephia last week clarified a recent study that raised eyebrows among mobile-video experts in the United Kingdom. The San Francisco-based firm addressed its report, issued a week earlier, that said one-third of all U.K. mobile TV watchers tune into BBC1, and nearly one-fourth watch other wireless TV offerings from the network. The problem: only one U.K. handset can receive BBC1-Virgin Mobile’s Lobster, which hit stores just a month ago-and no wireless channels exist for the other BBC offerings.

Several other content providers cited in the study also appear to have yet to launch mobile video services.

Telephia responded to a modest backlash by claiming the survey asked users to recall any type of video viewed on mobile phones, including content from off-deck sites, streaming applications and video clip downloads. Telephia in a public statement also apologized “for any confusion this may have caused.”

The company stood by its figures, however.

“When you look at the study we did awhile back in the U.S., it was the same thing-we used the same definitions,” said Kanishka Agarwal, Telephia’s vice president of new products. “We made a conscious decision to talk about format regardless of delivery.”

The controversy surrounding the initial report underscores the increasingly heated battle to provide mobile content consumption data in the United States and Europe. Telephia is in a fierce battle with M:Metrics, a Seattle-based firm that has gained substantial traction in the market; several newcomers are joining the playing field as well.

The competing firms attracted notice earlier this year at the Electronics Entertainment Expo after issuing contrasting bills of health regarding the mobile-gaming space. A report from M:Metrics indicated mobile-gaming activity had been consistently flat for several months in the United States as well as two European markets. Telephia painted a different portrait, saying the space witnessed an astonishing 53-percent jump in downloads between January and March and 44-percent growth in the number of unique wireless game purchasers.

“That’s a pretty big discrepancy in data points” between the two reports, Glu Mobile Chief Executive Officer Greg Ballard said at the time.

The rivalry became more heated in June, when Telephia slapped M:Metrics with a lawsuit claiming the Seattle-based outfit had infringed on two Telephia patents in connection with the development and distribution of smart-phone metering software. M:Metrics has said the suit is without merit.

When it comes to mass-market handsets, though, the two companies typically use differing methodologies. Telephia, in its studies of U.S. consumers, often uses “bill scraping”-monitoring wireless consumers’ monthly statements-to measure usage. M:Metrics, by contrast, conducts consumer surveys. Each technique has its vulnerabilities. Bill scraping, for instance, can lead to inaccuracies when more than one user is on the statement, such as on family plans. Consumer surveys, of course, are dependent on a respondent’s honesty and accurate recall.

Indeed, the human element may play a role in the controversial study from Telephia, which surveyed 8,000 U.K. users. It’s likely that some consumers simply discussed familiar TV channels-not wireless content they’ve actually watched-according to Kevin Nolan, director of the Advanced Wireless Laboratory at Strategy Analytics.

“My take on it was that people were saying that they had viewed these channels, but I knew that couldn’t be the case,” said Nolan, who has done extensive research in the U.K. mobile-video market. “If the brand leader in the mobile entertainment segment doesn’t have an offering, a lot of people will say they use that brand” anyway.

And given the small fraction of mobile users who actually consume video on the go, a few erroneous responses can cloud even the most rigorous survey. Between 2 percent and 3 percent of all U.K. mobile users watch wireless TV, Agarwal said, so Telephia’s sample size for the study was about 240 users.

With the seemingly infinite variables and intricacies of the mobile video market-as well as consumers’ unfamiliarity with the space-survey results shouldn’t always be taken at face value.

“We find that all the time,” Nolan said. “If you ask about consumers’ willingness to pay for a service, most often users will tell you how much it would be sold for, not how much they’d be willing to pay.”

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