Wireless is the future. That does not mean that it’s an easy business. There have been many ups and downs over time. The past decade has been rough for both AT&T and Verizon. Now, suddenly this quarter they finally both reported strong performance along with T-Mobile. So, what happened? Is this the beginning of a new, longer-term growth wave? Let’s take a closer look.
First, it is important to understand wireless is changing. Then again, wireless is always changing. It has been this way over the decades.
My opinion comes from pulling back the camera and looking at the longer-term, historical performance of companies and the wireless industry as a whole.
You see, a decade ago T-Mobile was dying on the vine while AT&T and Verizon were growing. Then things suddenly flipped. During the next decade, T-Mobile recovered, and AT&T and Verizon began to struggle.
AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon need “Eye of the Tiger”
In the movie “Rocky III,” the theme song was “Eye of the Tiger.” That song says it all in the wireless industry. You need to be hungry to win. Hungrier than your competitors.
In my opinion, that is what happened to T-Mobile. Years ago, they lost their way. Then after years of struggle, they finally found it once again and had the “Eye of the Tiger”. That finally put them on a winning track which they are still on today.
Until a decade ago, AT&T and Verizon were on the winning track. I think the lack of competition from T-Mobile and Sprint may have caused them to lose their edge. So, they lost their “Eye of the Tiger.”
AT&T, Verizon acquired WarnerMedia, CNN, DirecTV, AOL and Yahoo!
To keep investors satisfied and in place, AT&T and Verizon went off in some wrong directions.
AT&T acquired DirecTV, then a few years later acquired Time Warner Media, and changed the name to WarnerMedia, which included properties like CNN, Warner Brothers Studio and the like.
Verizon, not to be outdone, acquired AOL and Prodigy. And for a while, we thought these companies were going to own the entertainment space.
However, after giving it their best shot, they both finally threw in the towel and went back to the drawing board.
Fortunately, at that time 5G was starting to come on strong. That was where they have focused over the past several years.
They are still pouring billions of dollars into their networks just to keep up with the competition.
However, because of the weak economy in the past two years, while they continue to invest in their wireless networks to 5G, their revenues and profits were just not keeping up.
The sour economy forced customers to look for lower cost wireless alternatives. That’s why MVNO resellers have been growing.
New areas of wireless growth; FWA, Private Wireless, 5G home internet
Recently, the wireless industry has found several new areas of growth for both the business market and the consumer market.
These include FWA or Fixed Wireless Access, 5G home internet and private wireless. I think these new areas may indeed become long-term growth sectors, which is great news for all wireless carriers including AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, US Cellular, C-Spire and countless smaller providers, nationwide.
There is also an opportunity for the MVNO resellers as well.
Qualcomm, US Cellular, Betacom, Globalstar, Juniper Networks and more
That’s the opportunity. The challenge is these new growth areas are also attracting plenty of competition.
Many other players have already jumped in either building networks or selling services including Qualcomm, US Cellular, Betacom, Globalstar, Celona, Juniper Networks, Federated Wireless, Ericsson, NTT, Cradlepoint, HPE, Cisco, Nokia, Intel, Samsung, Amazon and so many others. And more are entering the space all the time.
So, while today, things are looking better for AT&T and Verizon and while they are finally showing growth once again, the areas they are focused on for growth also has plenty of competition.
That means there are real opportunities and challenges every wireless competitor faces today.
Great marketers will be the real winners in wireless going forward
All wireless players can be winners once again, but they must develop the “Eye of the Tiger.”
Wireless has been with us for half a century, but over that time it has changed time and time again.
I believe the real winners in this space will come from those who are great marketers. They have to catch the attention of the marketplace, both business customers and consumers.
So, which companies will be the real, long-term winners? That’s the big questions every investor, every customer and in fact every worker wants to know.
Winners need to have the “Eye of the Tiger.” That, in my opinion, will be the sign of a long-term leader as this new competitive space continues to expand going forward.
I hope this is the early days of a new, real, long-term growth opportunity for all wireless carriers.
Remember, wireless is the future. That does not mean the wireless of yesterday. That means the wireless of tomorrow. Wireless is always changing from analog to digital, from 2G all the way to 5G and beyond.
T-Mobile had their comeback moment a decade ago. AT&T and Verizon can have theirs today. If they can once again develop their “Eye of the Tiger.” As the 3Q23 reports have shown: so far, so good.
