Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly feature, Analyst Angle. We’ve collected a group of the industry’s leading analysts to give their outlook on the hot topics in the wireless industry.
The arrival of a new year brings with its numerous expectations of what would be the changes that will be taking place over the next 12 months. Since there’s seems to be an unwritten law mandating consultancies to provide a list of major trends that need to be closely watched, Signals Consulting selected various topics that will continue driving the evolution of Latin America & the Caribbean’s telecommunication market:
Net Neutrality Regulation
Chile was the first country in the world to enact net neutrality regulation, which basically means that Internet providers cannot discriminate nor censor the content transmitted over their networks. This issue would increase in importance in Latin America – Colombia already has a consultation process on the topic – as next generation mobile networks continue expanding their subscriber base in the region.
Markets to watch: Chile & Colombia
Cloud Computing
The remote hosting of computer applications will continue to increase its relevance in the region, but mass market adoption – beyond basic email applications, OTT video services or Google Apps – will continue to be small. The main growth opportunity will continue to be in the enterprise and government sector as a cost reduction alternative. Nevertheless, cloud computing will be gaining track as a fundamental part of governments’ national broadband plans: low cost alternative to provide software upgrades to all.
Markets to watch: Jamaica & Uruguay
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Fixed Wireless Broadband – LTE
The traditional hype that at one time or another accompanies wireless technologies is now shadowing LTE’s short term potential in the region. While most of the attention is given to its deployment by mobile operators, subscriber growth in the early years will be driven by its implementation as a fixed wireless broadband in a business model that would remind more than one observer of WiMAX. Mobile operators are still expanding their 3G networks and would still have to amortize it prior to deploying a new technology, whereas using LTE as a fixed alternative doesn’t require similar amounts of CAPEX. Summarizing: the few remaining WiMAX operators may start migrating towards LTE.
Markets to watch: Brazil & Colombia
Data Offloading
The increase of mobile data usage together with the emergence of bandwidth hungry applications will force operators to heavily invest in offloading alternatives. The predominant alternative for mobile data offloading will continue to be WiFi hotspots. But, alternatives such as femtocells will continue – not for the mass market – to be used in close spaces that require high mobile data rates throughputs.
Markets to watch: Brazil & Caribbean
Satellite Capacity
During the last few years, satellite capacity demand has been driven by two main factors: expansion of DTH subscribers, the need for the provision of connectivity in rural areas, as well as backhaul for wireless networks in remote locations. The next twelve months would see a drastic increase in the number of satellites with footprint in the region as well as the initial moves towards the pre-selling of Ka band services in the region prior to the service commercialization in 2013. In addition, governments will continue with their plans to launch state-owned satellites for security reasons and increase connectivity in rural areas.
Markets to watch: Mexico & Venezuela
OTT Video Services
Although Netflix wasn’t the first provider of OTT video services in Latin America and the Caribbean, its arrival helped popularize these services throughout the region. Over the next 12 months, telecom operators would continue to launch their own OTT video services to compete against Netflix, gratuitous providers such as Argentina-based Cuevana, and non traditional players such as Amazon or iTunes. The availability of mobile applications for these services will force the discussion/consideration of topics like net neutrality, mobile data offloading, and intellectual property rights.
Markets to watch: Argentina & Brazil
National Broadband Plans
During 2011, Argentina Conectada, Brazil’s Plano Nacional de Banda Larga, and Colombia’s Vive Digital were the media protagonists of the region’s national broadband plans. This press coverage – greater to the one obtained by Indotel outside of the Dominican Republic and eclipsing Uruguay’s Ceibal Plan – has served to drive similar initiatives or at least stir the debate in countries like Mexico. 2012 will see even stronger efforts from regional governments to increase broadband penetration in rural / remote areas through public-private partnerships.
Markets to watch: UNASUR (12 South American Countries)
FTTx
The expansion of HSPA+ and LTE networks will increase the demand for the deployment of fiber to the tower for backhaul purposes. There are two sides to this coin: it will greatly increase the amount of fiber optic being deployed throughout the region, but it will drastically increase operator’s needed CAPEX. In other words, expansion of next generation mobile broadband networks will be slow outside densely populated areas.
Markets to watch: Panama & Puerto Rico
Jose Otero is president of Signals Consulting. Follow him on Twitter (@Jose_F_Otero) or email him at [email protected]
>>> Be sure not to miss our 2012 Predictions. RCR Wireless News asked wireless industry analysts and executives to provide their predictions for what they expect to see in 2012 across their areas of expertise.
