Vendors and carriers have renewed hope that the world could have one standard in place for third-generation systems, but Europe holds one of the keys in making it a reality.
The situation is as political as ever as vendors, carriers and interest groups work within the European Telecommunications Standards Institute to figure out the parameters of the recently chosen third-generation standard called UTRA, UMTS Terrestrial Radio Access. ETSI reached a consensus in January on the standard that draws on both a GSM-based wideband-Code Division Multiple Access technology and a solution called TD-CDMA, Time Division Multiple Access-CDMA. W-CDMA will be used for wide-area applications while TD-CDMA will be used primarily for low-mobility indoor applications. ETSI now is working to determine key elements within the proposal before presenting the choice to the International Telecommunications Union.
W-CDMA backers L.M. Ericsson and Nokia Oy proved their influence in Europe, flying in the faces of Motorola Inc., Northern Telecom Ltd. and Siemens AG, which drew a line in the sand with the TD-CDMA solution, say analysts.
“Operators that voted in ETSI voted with Ericsson and Nokia as the clear market leaders in GSM (Global System for Mobile communications). Ericsson and Nokia are their suppliers and they chose to go with their own suppliers,” said Patrick Donegan, senior analyst with the Yankee Group in the United Kingdom. “Ericsson has a lot of power by virtue of selling a lot of systems worldwide. Market power, for the most part, comes from the blessing of their customers.”
Now, the influence of Ericsson, other vendors and interest groups in Europe plays a role in whether W-cdmaOne technology will be converged with W-CDMA within ETSI’s proposal. W-cdmaOne has been adopted by one of the work groups under the auspices of the Telecommunications Industry Association in the United States. Many vendors and carriers, along with the CDMA Development Group, are lobbying for convergence.
“We do know a bunch of global operators and manufacturers who would like very much to harmonize standards to make one as close as possible between W-CDMA and W-cdmaOne,” said Arun Sobti, director of research and development for third-generation standards with Motorola. “We would like for the air interface to be as close as possible so that we can use the same platform radios and exercise the software in radios to judge in one environment or another … Is it likely Europe will budge? I don’t know. So far it’s like pushing a rock up a hill.”
“It’s more of a political issue than a technical issue,” said Peter MacLaren, vice president of business development with Northern Telecom Inc. “It does require some technical innovation. We believe with a will, there’s a good way to come up with a good compromise.”
“We’re pleased in looking ahead that just about everyone has now agreed that direct sequence CDMA is the correct technology,” said Dr. Irwin Jacobs, chairman and chief executive officer of Qualcomm Inc., the cdmaOne innovator. “One of the important aspects we see is that next-generation hooks backward to both GSM and cdmaOne.”
Without convergence, carriers and manufacturers won’t get the economies of scale needed, argue proponents, and many manufacturers will not be able to sell to a worldwide market.
“A worldwide market, under a converged standards effort, is a more competitive environment where you have reduced costs,” said Bob Egan, research director with the Gartner Group in Stamford, Conn. “If things don’t get converged with IS-95, it’s because there was more political maneuvering by infrastructure vendors and not enough voices from the carrier side representing IS-95.”
CdmaOne has yet to penetrate GSM-centric Europe, and Ericsson, the dominate vendor in Europe, has been a long-time foe of the technology. It is the only major telecommunications manufacturer that refused to support Qualcomm’s cdmaOne standard, the narrowband CDMA voice standard being deployed worldwide. The vendor has consistently opposed cdmaOne, initially saying it wasn’t ready for commercial deployment and probably could not work when deployed. Now that systems are operating in North America, Asia and several other parts of the world, Ericsson’s position is that cdmaOne is designed primarily for voice communications and has only limited data capabilities today. Ericsson would not comment on its position concerning convergence by RCR press time.
The GSM MoU Association, a powerful group in Europe that represents network operators and exists to promote GSM technology, indicated it doesn’t have much interest in convergence.
“Our aim is to work for the decision reached in January for the GSM community. That’s our objective, and that’s where we stand,” said Adriana Nugter, chairwoman of the GSM MoU. “Whatever happens outside of that, happens.”
While others believe the 3G process in Europe is extremely vendor-driven, Motorola’s Sobti believes carriers are having more say in the process. “We’re surprised to see how many of these operators are looking at this as an opportunity to make sure they get the right deal. They know for 3G to fly, they have to have the economies of scale and the business model. The key aspect of that is low-cost handsets,” he said.
AirTouch Communications Inc.-a cdmaOne operator in the United States that holds wireless interests around the world that use different platforms-and other global operators want to make sure standards are compatible. “We want to make sure we protect our existing infrastructure,” said Susan Rosenberg, spokeswoman for AirTouch. The CDG indicated many cdmaOne and GSM operators are interested in convergence for economies of scale.
Perhaps the one event that will have a significant impact on whether ETSI chooses convergence is the choice Japan will make for its 3G standard. The country’s standard’s body, the Association of Radio Industries and Business, publicly has said it actively is looking for ways to harmonize the ETSI W-CDMA proposal with the cdmaOne proposal.
The Yankee Group’s Donegan said ARIB’s decision “will clearly affect the direction of work by ETSI. ARIB is leading the way because the Japanese are moving toward 3G systems more quickly. By defacto, ARIB is becoming positioned as the leading melting pot.”
Japan and South Korea have a strong interest in one worldwide standard. Japanese manufacturers have been limited in the past in providing infrastructure worldwide because their country uses a digital standard, called Personal Digital Communications, that is different from those used anywhere else in the world. Now, it appears Japanese carriers will deploy 3G technology sooner than other countries, giving Japanese manufacturers a competitive advantage. Nippon Telephone and Telegraph Corp., the largest cellular operator in Japan, however, already has chosen to push ahead with W-CDMA technology with the help of Ericsson and Nokia.
“Clearly, Japan wants a more significant role on the global scene for 3G. It has more to gain than anyone else in seeing a true world standard emerge,” said MacLaren.
Qualcomm also may hold a trump card in the convergence issue in Europe. It owns key intellectual property rights to W-CDMA technology, and it is interested in seeing one world standard encompassing both W-CDMA and W-cdmaOne.
When asked under what condition Qualcomm would grant its IPRs to companies interested in manufacturing W-CDMA equipment, Jacobs said: “We have been looking at this very carefully, contributing to where we can contribute to end up with standard improvements rather than degradations … We do feel strongly there should be convergence that allows both IS-41 and GSM networks to exist.”
All other vendors to date that have declared to ETSI they have patents or patents pending for W-CDMA and/or TD-CDMA technology have indicated they will grant them in accordance with ETSI IPR policy.
Qualcomm has indicated it will notify ETSI when it has reached a conclusion on its IPR pos
ition.
MacLaren said Nortel will offer the IPRs it owns to next-generation technology for free, provided its competitors reciprocate.
TIA declined to comment on the latest standards developments. Eric Schimmel, vice president of TIA, said in February that considerations may be made about interoperability and that TIA may make sure that the different air-interface standards will meet some minimum criteria within the ITU to conform to a family concept for network interoperability.
The Gartner Group’s Egan believes TDMA technology now has a clear migration path since the UWC-136 proposal allows for convergence with GSM technology. The Universal Wireless Consortium members have agreed that TDMA data channels will be aggregated to look similar to GSM data channels. Eventually, TDMA voice channels could be compatible with GSM voice channels if carriers use packetized voice in the future.
All standards bodies in Japan, the United States and Europe must submit their proposals by June to the ITU, which is in charge of setting worldwide standards for future networks.
ETSI’s work group recently met in France to discuss radio interface specifications. ETSI said work on the radio interface will continue between now and the next meeting, to be held in May.
