Reality Check (Special Edition): The Kin kill

Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly Reality Check column. We’ve gathered a group of visionaries and veterans in the mobile industry to give their insights into the marketplace.
Most of my blogs are chock full of numbers, trends, analyses. I like it that way. However, every once in a while, you get a story that has no data (we’ve only known the Kin for a few months).
There will be many stores today on why the Kin died, the decisiveness (and organizational disarray) of Microsoft, and the dominance of Apple. They are topics we have been discussing for months in The Sunday Brief. But in the articles I have read since the Kin kill, folks have missed a few things:
1. In-store (Verizon, Best Buy, etc.) sales reps are not superhuman. Asking them to sell another device drives an incremental investment. Where does this phone fit in to the opening/qualifying questions? And what’s the commission structure? (I can imagine every rep asking “and where’s my app store?”). Ask Palm – they tried to sell Pre and Pixi during the Blackberry selling season. You have to train, reinforce, train again – it’s in person, face-to-face. When was the last time Microsoft trained on Windows in person?
2. Hardware is no longer a separate buying criterion. This is the big trend for the summer and why Apple is gearing up for a more open future. When you remember the processor (Snapdragon) as easily as you remember the app (Paper Toss, Drop Box, etc.), or, in a few instances, handset provided differentiators like Moto’s Blur, you forget the brand name of the handset. That may be too strong of a statement today, but remember, only those of us over 40 really care about the word Think Pad (it’s a laptop hardware brand made somewhat famous by IBM). With Apple the lone exception, it’s about Android, not Incredible. No app store? Forgetaboutit.
3. Verizon is not a good partner for Microsoft. In the old days of Sprint (long distance was still a division), we longed for a relationship with Microsoft. This was before Exchange server was big. That allure still exists in the corporate world – have a bevy of alternatives for the customer’s business applications. That’s why the Touch Pro 2 can survive and the Kin dies. Verizon Wireless is a national carrier with a disproportionate focus on individual purchases (compare to AT&T and Sprint – they are a lot closer to an individual-oriented message of T-Mobile than either of those two are). They still sell to a lot of enterprises, don’t get me wrong, but retail individual purchases and service is where a lot of money goes. Also, when you are relegated to 3rd behind the Verizon-established Droid franchise and Blackberry, what’s left?
How can Microsoft recover? More next week, but it’s a) simplification as a discipline, b) use the Internet, and c) buy RIM (the maker of Blackberry).
I welcome your comments.
Jim Patterson is CEO & co-founder of Mobile Symmetry, a start-up created for carriers to solve the problems of an increasingly mobile-only society. He was most recently President – Wholesale Services for Sprint and has a career that spans over eighteen years in telecom and technology. He welcomes your comments atjim@mobilesymmetry.com.