Twelve of the carriers featured in RCR’s Top 20 Cellular operators list in 1987 either no longer exist or have substantially changed. It’s not really that surprising since the list is more than a decade old.
What is surprising is how next year’s Top 20 Cellular Operator’s list will change from this year’s. At least four of the carriers named on last week’s list will be swallowed by other companies on the same list. And each time a new deal is announced, speculation begins on which company will be next. Alltel Corp.’s planned $6 billion acquisition of 3607 Communications Co. has sparked the most recent guessing game. Vanguard Cellular Systems Inc. (lucky number 13 on RCR’s Top 20 list) has been mentioned as a possible “buy” target for at least the last eight years. I suppose, someday, even Vanguard will be facing an offer too good to refuse. Fewer players with bigger pieces of the wireless pie is the name of this consolidation game.
My favorite speculation today, however, is that MCI-WorldCom will pick Nextel Communications Inc. for a wireless partner. MCI reminds me of the guy who never marries because no woman is good enough. If being married is the guy’s goal, he either better be a) one heck of a catch to get that woman who is good enough (if she’s that good, she’s going to expect someone equally as swell) or b) have realistic expectations about what “good enough” means.
MCI already danced with Nextel and broke the SMR’s heart. In 1994, MCI planned to pay $1.3 billion for a 17-percent share in Nextel. Then, nothing. Sure, at the time, Nextel’s technology stunk and MCI didn’t want to give its name to an unworthy partner.
Times have changed. Nextel is arguably a belle of the ball. Nextel seems to actually be living up to its promise of competition for cellular carriers. When people count competition in various markets, the sentence often ends … “and one more if you count Nextel.”
MCI also had a wireless chance with Bell Atlantic, today listed at number 3 on RCR’s Top 20 and certainly a respectable partner with more than 5 million subscribers.
MCI’s wireless reseller strategy is growing slowly and its relationship with PCS player-not-yet-a-player NextWave Telecom Inc. is not going to be quite the relationship either MCI or NextWave had in mind.
MCI-WorldCom, however, has said it isn’t interested in a wireless play right now. (Yeah, wireless phones are probably just a fad anyway).
Time’s a-wasting, MCI-WorldCom. There are fewer potential partners each week.
