WASHINGTON-This year’s midterm election has monumental implications for the political landscape in terms of telecom policy and the balance of power in America-however, not in the conventional sense.
The Republicans, whose revolution took back the House and Senate from Democrats in the 1994 midterm election, are expected to retain control of both chambers. The question instead is the margin of victory for the GOP, and its implications for President Clinton and lawmaking in the 106th Congress.
Results from the November election also could determine whether Clinton stays or leaves and, by implication, whether Al Gore-the administration’s high-tech policy guru-takes over.
If the GOP adds five more Senate seats to its 55, the party will have a filibuster-proof majority. That could muzzle Senate Democrats and put a Republican power play into motion.
To toss Clinton out of office, assuming the House impeaches him by year’s end, the GOP-which would act as jury and consider House evidence-would need 67 votes. That would require a handful of Senate Democratic votes. Could that happen? Today, probably not as Democrats of late have rallied around Clinton.
But if Democrats make a poor showing Nov. 3, and the election is interpreted as a referendum on Clinton, the president could lose the Senate support needed to save him from impeachment. If that happens, Clinton could be looking homeward.
If Clinton hangs on, but Republicans gain at least a 60-seat majority, the presidential misery index will go through the roof: The Republicans could ignore him and his policies and Democrats-furious with having their limited clout diminished further-could tap him gently on the shoulder and tell him it’s time to leave, especially if the economy goes south.
Hollings, McCain, Tauzin
Another pol whose fate is in the balance is Ernest “Fritz” Hollings of South Carolina, for years a Senate Democratic heavyweight of telecom policy making and appropriations. Hollings is in a nasty race against Rep. Bob Inglis (R-S.C.) to retain his seat.
If he loses, Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) is a good bet to become ranking minority member of the Senate Commerce Committee.
Whatever the outcome of the Hollings-Inglis race, the winner will have to deal with Senate Commerce Committee Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.), who is expected to have an easy time of it against Democratic environmental lawyer Ed Ranger. Once McCain wins, watch for him to start tinkering with the 1996 telecom act.
House telecom subcommittee Chairman Billy Tauzin (D-La.) emerges as perhaps the biggest winner. Tauzin is not being challenged and is positioned to succeed Rep. Thomas Bliley (R-Va.) as chairman of the House Commerce Committee in 2001. That would make Tauzin one of the most powerful, if not the most powerful, telecom lawmaker in Congress.
The same is not true of McCain, a maverick, who appears comfortable clashing with Senate leadership on issues near and dear to him.
There is one caveat. Tauzin is tight with the House GOP leadership, which could make his telecom clout that much more powerful. However, were House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) to fall out of favor with Republicans (he barely survived one coup attempt), Tauzin’s power base could be weakened.
As far as other lawmakers with responsibility for making telecom policy, investigating telecom scandals and appropriating money for telecom regulators, here’s how the races shape up:
Senate Committee on Commerce, State and Transportation:
Has jurisdiction over telecom issues and is expected to work on legislation to reauthorize the Federal Communications Commission in the 106th Congress.
McCain (R-Ariz.), chairman: Safe
Sam Brownback (R-Kan.): Safe
Hollings (D-S.C.), Ranking Democrat: Toss Up
Inouye (D-Hawaii): Safe
Wendell H. Ford (D-Ky.): Retiring
John B. Breaux (D-La.): Safe
Byron L. Dorgan (D-N.D.): Safe
Ron Wyden (D-Ore.): Likely Democratic. While Wyden had a tough race when he was first elected, he is expected to beat John Lim (R).
Commerce, Justice, State and Judiciary Subcommittee of the Senate Committee on Appropriations:
This subcommittee determines the budgets for the FCC and the National Telecommunications and Information Administration. Also the appropriations bill coming from this subcommittee consistently has had language related to the digital wiretap act included as a rider.
Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), chairman: Likely Republican. Despite a close call in 1992, Gregg is expected easily to defeat underfunded and underpublicized Democrat George Condodemetraky.
Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-Colo.): Leans Republican. The former Democrat may have difficulty because of his party and ideological switching.
Hollings (D-S.C.), Ranking Democrat: Toss Up
Dale Bumpers (D-Ark.): Retiring
Barbara A. Mikulski (D-Md.): Safe
House Committee on Commerce:
Has jurisdiction over telecom issues and is expected to work on legislation to reauthorize the FCC.
Bliley, chairman: Safe
Tauzin: Uncontested
Michael G. Oxley (R-Ohio): Safe
Michael Bilirakis (R-Fla.): Safe
Dan Schaefer (R-Colo.): Retiring
Joe Barton (R-Texas), Chairman of the oversight and investigations subcommittee: Safe
J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.): Safe
Fred Upton (R-Mich.): Safe
Cliff Stearns (R-Fla.): Safe
Bill Paxon (R-N.Y.): Retiring
Paul E. Gillmor (R-Ohio): Safe
Scott Klug (R-Wis.): Retiring
Jim Greenwood (R-Pa.): Safe
Michael Crapo (R-Idaho): Running for Senate
Christopher Cox (R-Calif.): Safe
Nathan Deal (R-Ga.): Safe
Steve Largent (R-Okla.): Safe
Richard M. Burr (R-N.C.): Likely Republican. Burr faces Libertarian Gene Paczelt.
Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.): Leans Republican. Democratic San Diego Councilwoman Chris Kehoe is giving this hard-to-define Republican a tough challenge.
Edward Whitfield (R-Ky.): Likely Republican. A rematch with ex-Rep. Tom Barlow (D), who Whitfield defeated 51 percent to 49 percent, could still be close, but the First District of Kentucky is trending Republican despite wins by President Clinton in both 1992 and 1996.
Greg Ganske (R-Iowa): Safe
Charles Norwood (R-Ga.): Leans Republican, although the 10th District of Georgia used to be solidly Southern Democrat. Norwood came in with the Republican take-over in 1994.
Rick White (R-Wash.): Toss up. White escaped a close primary in September. The winner of this race earns the right to represent Microsoft Corp., AT&T Wireless Services Inc. and others in Washington state’s high-tech 1st district.
Tom Coburn (R-Okla.): Likely Republican. Coburn has said that he will not run again after this election so he is expected to prevail over Kent Pharoah.
Rick Lazio (R-N.Y.): Safe
Barbara Cubin (R-Wyo.): Safe
James E. Rogan (R-Calif.): District leans Republican. More Democrats are registered to vote but the 27th District of California has not elected a Democrat in 24 years.
John M. Shimkus (R-Ill.): Likely Republican. Shimkus challenger, Rick Verticchio, won a write-in campaign to challenge him.
Heather Wilson (R-N.M.): Leans Republican. Wilson is the most junior member of the House having just won a special election in June. She faces the same challengers: Phil Maloof (D) and Bob Anderson (Green Party).
John D. Dingell (D-Mich.), senior member of the House and ranking Democrat: Safe
Henry A. Waxman (D-Calif.): Safe
Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.), ranking Democrat on the telecom, trade and consumer protection subcommittee: Safe
Ralph M. Hall (D-Texas): Safe
Rick Boucher (D-Va.): Safe
Thomas J. Manton (D-N.Y.): Retiring
Edolphus Towns (D-N.Y.): Safe
Frank Pallone Jr. (D-N.J.): Leans Democratic. Pallone faces two stiff, wealthy challengers this year.
Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio): Likely Democratic. The Republicans think they can win this
seat but the 13th District of Ohio is heavily Democratic.
Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.): Leans Democratic. Gordon’s challenger, Walt Massey, is expected to bring up the Monica Lewinsky scandal to combat Gordon’s popularity.
Elizabeth Furse (D-Ore.): Retiring
Peter Deutsch (D-Fla.): Safe
Bobby Rush (D-Ill.): Safe
Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.): Safe
Ron Klink (D-Pa.), ranking Democrat on the oversight and investigations subcommittee: Safe.
Bart Stupak (D-Mich.): Likely Democratic
Eliot Engle (D-N.Y.): Safe
Thomas C. Sawyer (D-Ohio): Safe
Albert Wynn (D-Md.): Safe
Gene Green (D-Texas): Safe
Karen McCarthy (D-Mo.): Safe
Ted Strickland (D-Ohio): Toss Up
Diana L. DeGette (D-Colo.): Safe
Commerce, Justice, State and Judiciary Subcommittee of the House Committee on Appropriations:
This subcommittee determines the budgets for the FCC and NTIA. Also the appropriations bill coming from this subcommittee consistently has had language related to the digital wiretap act included as a rider.
Harold (Hal) Rogers (D-Ky.), chairman: Safe
Jim Kolbe (R-Ariz.): Safe
Charles H. Taylor (R-N.C.): Safe
Ralph Regula (R-Ohio): Safe
Michael P. Forbes (R-N.Y.): Leans Republican. Forbes broke rank with the GOP leadership in recent times. Look for a competitive race Bill Holst (D), a Suffolk County legislator.
Tom Latham (R-Iowa): Safe
Alan B. Mollohan (D-W.Va.), Ranking Democrat: Safe
David E. Skaggs (D-Colo.): Retiring
Julian C. Dixon (D-Calif.): Safe
Some information for this news article was garnered from rollcall.com and the Cook Report.
