DUBLIN, Ireland-The trunked-radio industry in Europe is making confident noises about future growth, with much of this optimism based on development of new applications arising from the TETRA (Terrestrial Trunked Radio) digital standard. Proponents hope the voice and data service capabilities of the digital system will help trunked radio develop its share of the mobile communications market.
The International Mobile Telecommunications Association (IMTA), which represents a large number of the trunked-radio operators worldwide, has predicted substantial growth in all the leading European markets for trunked-radio systems. The association forecasts that by 2000, there will be more than 250,000 subscribers each in the United Kingdom and Germany, and more than 200,000 in Russia. Meanwhile, Spain is expected to grow from a base of zero in 1994, to about 100,000 by the end of the decade.
From having fewer than a quarter of a million four years ago, Europe is forecast to have more than 1.3 million commercial trunked radio units in service by 2000, said IMTA.
According to IMTA Senior Director Robyn Shalhoub, one of the greatest challenges facing the industry is converting the PMR (Private Mobile Radio) customer to PAMR (Public Access Mobile Radio). “Many operators believe that TETRA will be able to offer the private customer everything that GSM (Global System for Mobile communications) offers and more besides and that these users will get more from using a public access system.”
Market analysis firm The Strategis Group already has identified a move toward PAMR as more public operators are licensed and more companies outsource their mobile communications requirements. It forecasts that across western and eastern Europe, annual public access subscriber service revenues will increase from US$227 million in 1997 to US$480 million by 2002.
Michael Norman of European equipment supplier Simoco Communications reckons trunked radio in Europe will expand across a variety of applications. “Airline companies are a typical user of the technology, where many different groups of employees are spread across a wide area but need to share a radio system. However, there are many other types of customers, from local government to warehouse operators.”
Trunked radio systems face severe competition from cellular phone networks, but Michael points out that trunked radio now offers many telephony functions.
“Cellular phones have certainly made an impact on this market, but the effects have been positive as well as negative. The growth in communications generally that has arisen from the expansion of the cellular phone sector has increased awareness of the need for effective communications and helped the trunked radio industry. Now a customer with a mobile radio handset has increased expectations of what that device should be able to do.”
Mobile radio also provides a more favorable long-term cost equation than cellular. Cellular systems require a small capital expenditure or initial outlay, but over 10 to 15 years-the life expectancy of a trunked radio system-operating costs are quite high, whereas mobile radio systems involve higher capital expenditures for infrastructure installation but also offer lower operating costs.
In common with cellular trends in Europe, Norman said he expects to see an accelerated move from analog to digital systems over the next few years.
“I expect that analog will have been completely phased out within about four years. As well as the implications for security, digital systems also introduce data functionality, and in this respect TETRA is ahead of GSM (Global System for Mobile communications) with the capacity for bandwidth on demand for large file transfer, video and Internet access.”
IMTA’s Shalhoub repeats the point about digital expansion: “At our European congress in September, operators were anticipating that in many markets (Germany, the United Kingdom and France) analog subscribers will eventually be phased out.”
Bob Lovett, director of communications for Motorola Inc.’s Commercial, Government and Industrial Systems sector, also reckons the functionality offered by new trunked radio systems will help to grow the European market significantly over the next few years.
“All industry predictions point to growth in this market. The TETRA standard, with its capacity for delivering voice and data traffic, will open up trunked radio systems to many new applications and users. On our trial systems we have been showing data and video transfer as well as voice.”
However, he said he still believes there will be continued demand in certain markets for analog technology.
Lovett claims trunked radio is superior to GSM in several respects. “Firstly, call set-up times are slow on GSM phones, but exceptionally fast on mobile radio systems. For people who rely on rapid contact, such as public-safety organization employees, trunked networks are the best option.”
Motorola reports call set-up times of around one-third of a second for its digital trunked radio systems.
“For a policeman on patrol who needs to hit a button for immediate help, a cellular phone is useless since he would not have time to dial a number and wait for a connection. There are many similar situations where call set-up times are equally crucial.”
Sending group messages is another strength of trunked-radio systems. This application has been well-received by service companies that may need to send an engineer to a specific location and can use the group call function to contact all the members of their service fleet simultaneously, thus ensuring the nearest team answers the call.
“Trunked radio is also an extremely efficient way of transmitting information,” claimed Bob Lovett. “The TETRA standard allows voice and data to be combined, moving away from voice dispatch to a situation where a request for service can be made as a data message. This means that communications channels are not tied up with voice traffic and messages can be sent more accurately to the recipient, who now also has a record of the message.”
The appearance of the handsets is changing as different markets demand different functions and appearance. For example, professional users are demanding something as small and discreet as a cellular phone, whereas emergency service workers require sturdy units with large emergency buttons. The progress of this evolution in handset design will define how successful trunked-radio operators have been in acquiring and meeting the requirements of these customers.
