SINGAPORE-Mobile data is quickly taking off in many parts of Asia, with growth rates in the region comparing favorably to take-up rates in Europe and the United States, say analysts.
Although overall percentages of Asian wireless subscribers that use data services are not available, Steven Yeong, analyst at the Gartner Group in Singapore, said there are about 1.6 million mobile data subscribers overall in Asia-a number that is set to grow to 12 million by 2003.
For short message service (SMS) subscribers, the figure now stands at 6 million users and will grow to 36 million by 2003.
According to the U.K.-based Mobile Data Association, which promotes the uses and benefits of wireless value-added services worldwide, the total number of cellular data users in Western Europe will increase from 3.5 million in 1998 to 51 million in 2003. In addition, the percentage of all cellular subscribers using data services will increase from 4 percent to 25 percent over the same period.
In the United States, the group estimates mobile data subscribers will increase from 1.9 million in 1998 to 28 million in 2003, while the percentage of all cellular subscribers using SMS services will jump from 2.7 percent to 21 percent during the period.
Based on these figures, it would appear mobile data uptake is slowest in Asia.
But that is not exactly true, say analysts.
Uneven distribution
This is because reception to mobile data services in Asia has not been evenly distributed.
Analysts say while data and multimedia have been the engines of growth in the developed markets of Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, it will be a while before data achieves mass acceptance in less-developed countries like India and China.
Low personal computer penetration and telephone (both wireline and wireless) penetrations in less-developed countries have resulted in slower uptake of mobile data services in those nations, dragging down overall regional numbers.
Also, operators in these countries are more concerned with improving basic service offerings than focusing on value-added services.
“They have four main priorities: to build on their market share, increase network coverage, migrate from analog to digital networks, and improve cash flow,” said Yeong.
Strong predictions
But things are looking up. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter expects that operators in developing countries will be ready to provide data services to their customers as soon as critical mass is achieved.
In addition, the arrival of new technologies like Symbian and BlueTooth will allow greater wireless transmission speeds and connectivity.
The combination of the above factors has led Morgan Stanley Dean Witter to predict that mobile data services will account for between 15 percent and 20 percent of total revenues in Asia by the end of 2000, up from about 5 percent now.
The growing acceptance of mobile data stems from the fact that it provides an important link in many business solutions. It enables users to send and receive information in a vast number of applications, including police in-car links, alarm systems control, security systems management and wireless two-way messaging.
According to Yeong, South Korea and Japan are in the forefront as they are committed to providing 3G systems by late 2001.
Current advances
In South Korea, all five CDMA carriers are now offering 14.4 kilobits per second (kbps) mobile data service based on the older IS-95A standard.
“They are now upgrading [their] networks to IS-95B and launching 86.4 kbps services by the end of 1999,” he said.
In Japan, NTT DoCoMo’s iMode mobile data service has attracted more than 1.8 million subscribers in nine months of service. Its success has been largely due to about 230 content providers and 2,000 Web sites accessible on iMode phones. The company said in October that it will offer its Compact html iMode solution and wireless portal service to other operators.
DoCoMo recently entered into an agreement with Symbian, a joint venture company developing technology for wireless information devices, to introduce a new mobile data device that will support normal e-mail editing, as well as high-level imaging.
In addition, Microsoft and NTT DoCoMo announced a joint venture, Mobimagic Co., to provide business users with wireless data access using Microsoft’s Windows CE operating software. The service will be offered initially over NTT DoCoMo’s PHS wireless network and later to subscribers of the iMode service.
Analysts say the strong take up of mobile data in many parts of Asia is due to the high penetration of personal computers. In Singapore, for example, one in three households own PCs-certainly one of the highest rates in the world.
Some carriers in the region are already thinking of introducing high-speed mobile data to take advantage of growing demand.
Singapore’s M1 recently announced its intention to offer General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) services using a Nokia solution by the middle of next year.
According to Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, SmarTone in Hong Kong has maintained higher-than-average unit revenues through its early introduction of mobile data.
All in all, analysts say the more advanced Asian countries compare favorably to Europe and the United States. And it will only be a matter of time before the rest of Asia joins the mobile data revolution.
