WASHINGTON-For all the confusion and uncertainty following last week’s presidential and congressional elections, it is possible telecom policy could escape the massive political gridlock that is predicted ahead.
But don’t count on it.
“I think there will be gridlock on taxes and other issues outside telecommunications, but you could still have telecom bills moving through Congress,” said Rob Cohen, a former Senate staffer who is vice president of government relations for SCC Communications Inc.
It’s true: Conventional wisdom has it that telecom policy tends to be nonpartisan and largely immune from strong, deep-seated ideological differences that typically divide Republicans and Democrats.
Conventional wisdom has it, too, that because telecommunications and high-tech sectors are so important to economic growth, jobs and global competitiveness, Republicans and Democrats can be counted on to put aside their differences and pass legislation important to wireless companies, landline telephone monopolies, Internet firms, cable TV operators and satellite firms.
Supporting that theory is the fact that telecom and high-tech companies have become generous financial backers of lawmakers in both major political parties.
But there’s another school of thought that says you can throw conventional wisdom out the window. That is what last week taught the nation.
Gridlock and political blood-letting is apt to reign in official Washington the next four years, possibly longer. Whether the political rancor flowing from The Great Political Divide will effectively hamstring efforts to pass legislation sought by the wireless industry and others is uncertain.
Legislation on privacy, billing, spectrum and other wireless issues are likely to be entertained by Congress next year. Efforts to pass pro-consumer legislation is likely to continue as well.
When it returns to a lame duck session on Tuesday, Congress will try again to pass legislation to repeal the 3 percent telephone tax and will hope Clinton doesn’t veto the spending bill it resides in this time.
The little that is known about the outcome of the presidential, House and Senate races is still quite significant. And it all points to gridlock.
The next president of the United States will win by a razor-thin margin, possibly without a majority of the popular vote. Slim majorities in the House and Senate will try to pass a few laws next year.
Republicans will control the House and likely the Senate, though a 50-50 split or even a one-person Democratic majority in Senate is possible. It could be weeks before the dust settles on the surreal political landscape.
And while talk of lawsuits and recounts fill the air, most signs point to GOP Texas Gov. George W. Bush becoming the 43rd president of the United States.
In general terms, that will mean less regulation and less antitrust oversight.
It could cut both ways for the wireless industry.
A Bush administration would provide fertile ground for relaxing the 45 megahertz spectrum cap, a change that would trigger a wave of merger and acquisition activity.
On the other hand, Bush-given his running mate’s strong military policy experience-may not be inclined to force the Pentagon to surrender spectrum earmarked for third-generation mobile phone systems.
But such a calculation seemingly would have to be balanced against the anticipated economic gains from spectrum auctions and the 3G wireless business itself.
Michael Kennedy, vice president and director of global spectrum and telecom policy, said securing 3G spectrum will be a challenge no matter who next occupies the White House.
“The question is, can the industry keep the momentum going,” said Kennedy. Kennedy said there will be new personnel in the next administration who may or may not be in step with President Clinton’s 3G spectrum directive last month.
There’s another question that comes into play if Bush indeed moves from the governor’s mansion in Austin to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Will a Bush administration have the same policy fascination with high-tech that the Clinton-Gore White House has had with it during the past eight years?
New Democrats, for reasons not explainable, tend to be attracted to high technology and tailor broad policies to that end. That was abundantly the case in the Clinton-Gore administration.
Some argue, however, that Bush-despite an Old Economy background in the oil business-appreciates high-technology every bit as much as opponent Vice President Gore, even if the Texas governor is not a tekkie. They point out that Austin, home to Bush in recent years, has become one of the nation’s top high-tech centers.
All that said, the wireless industry will continue to have a supporting cast of familiar faces on Capitol Hill. Rep. Billy Tauzin (R-La.) will vie with Rep. Mike Oxley (R-Ohio) for the chairmanship of the House Commerce Committee, with the retirement of Rep. Thomas Bliley (R-Va.)
Tauzin is favored to win the contest. FCC reform is expected to be at the top of the Louisiana lawmaker’s agenda early next year. How far a GOP-led Congress would go toward streamlining an FCC headed by a Michael Powell (currently an FCC commssioner) or by a Pat Wood (currently top Texas state utility regulator) is unclear.
FCC reform likely will run into resistance from Reps. John Dingell (D-Mich.) and Edward Markey (D-Mass.).
In the Senate, Commerce Committee Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.), if he doesn’t accept a cabinet position such as secretary of defense, will continue to be a driving force as will the ranking minority member of that panel, Sen. Ernest Hollings (D-S.C.).
