Wireline technologies continue to trump broadband wireless in the journey to the last mile.
In a new study on multidwelling units, Washington-based market research and consulting firm The Strategis Group says that cravings for high-speed data and video on demand among U.S. residents for cable and digital subscriber line services will far outweigh wireless in the next five years.
Cable Internet subscribers are expected to range between 370,000 and 2.7 million between 2001 and 2005, while DSL customers are projected to rise from 270,000 to 3.7 million within the same period.
The wireless curve is less cheerful, rising from zero to 270,000, according to the report.
“Although MDU residents care about cell phones, their priority is high-speed data to their homes,” said Jason Marcheck, a Strategis Group analyst.
Marcheck also identifies the unwillingness of companies to concentrate on broadband wireless as a possible explanation for the slow growth rate in MDUs.
Listing Winstar Communications Inc., Teligent Inc. and Reflex Communications as the only few companies ready to throw their full weight into that market, Marcheck said most companies are content with their services as long as existing technologies provide the high-speed data demanded by subscribers.
“The study was basically about high speed,” he said. “There are not many Winstars that focus on wireless.”
The study also reveals that high-speed Internet revenue will leap from $124.4 million in 2000 to $1.76 billion in 2005.
He explains that MDUs are “an underserved market,” while acknowledging that “large groups of tech-savvy consumers are living literally right on top of one another. This market represents a tremendous opportunity for service providers.”
While the study says the demographics favor high speed and video on demand, it does not show which areas of the country are likely to use wireless facilities more.
“We don’t have a study on the places it would work,” he said.
