With AT&T Wireless Services Inc.’s announcement that it will overlay its existing TDMA-based network with a GSM network supporting GPRS, the pressure is on other TDMA carriers, specifically the largest U.S.-based TDMA carrier Cingular Wireless, as to its future technology choice. Will the company stick with TDMA on its evolution plans to EDGE services, or follow AT&T by switching to GSM/GPRS.
“This definitely puts pressure on those carriers as to what their future plans are,” said Elliot Hamilton, senior wireless analyst at The Strategis Group. “It wouldn’t surprise me if they switched from TDMA. It depends on whether they think EDGE will provide the solutions necessary to move to W-CDMA.”
Cingular is the largest TDMA carrier in the United States, serving more than 19 million subscribers nationwide. If Cingular, formed from TDMA operators SBC Communications and BellSouth Mobility Inc. and GSM operator BellSouth Mobility DCS, decides to move to a GSM/GPRS network, the switch could be made easier due to BellSouth DCS’ GSM background.
“We don’t close our eyes to other technologies,” said Clay Owens, spokesman for Cingular Wireless. “It makes a lot of sense for numerous reasons to use GSM. It is a world standard and makes a lot of sense, and from a spectral point of view it makes more sense that TDMA.”
Owens noted that while Cingular was not ready to make any announcements on future GSM applications at this time, he did say to keep you eyes open in the future on the topic.
When Cingular announced its formation, it said it planned to migrate to EDGE to support third-generation services. But with its GSM footprint provided by BellSouth DCS in Nevada and California, Owens said the company was planning to launch GPRS services in those markets during the first quarter of 2001.
“If Cingular does decide to switch to GSM, their existing footprint of GSM would help the process,” said Peter Friedland, wireless analyst at W.R. Hambrecht & Co. “Their current GSM network represents approximately 25 percent of their current network. That’s a quarter of their network they would not have to switch.”
Canada’s largest wireless operator, Rogers Wireless Communications Inc., announced plans of its own to overlay its current nationwide TDMA network with a GSM network integrating GPRS packet data capabilities. That announcement came on the same day that AT&T, a partner of Rogers, made its decision.
Rogers said its migration path to full implementation of 3G services includes the deployment by July of a GPRS wireless packet data service along with GSM digital voice services, the implementation of EDGE capabilities to its GSM network by 2002, and the deployment of a 3G UMTS network during 2003.
Rogers said its current TDMA network would continue to be used to offer voice, circuit-switched data and short message services to its customers, but the combination of its network offerings would offer a greater choice in network features and handsets than is available now.
Berner noted that switching to GSM would allow Rogers to greatly benefit from the economies of scale in regards to GSM’s worldwide penetration, including lower network equipment costs, lower handset costs and greater development of network features and services.
While many analysts question whether Rogers can implement its GSM network at its projected cost of $280 million, Rogers said the integrated voice and data services capabilities of the GSM/GPRS network would generate significant additional revenues that would not have been possible without the switch.
Rogers has seen its dominance as the leading wireless operator in Canada slip recently as the company reported a 33-percent decrease in year-over-year net additions. The four largest carriers in Canada behind Rogers have reported average net additions of 37 percent year-over-year.
