Every day another vendor announces it has won a contract to provide third-generation services. And with each 3G announcement is the implication that 3G services will soon be here.
And they will. But one only has to look back at the rollout of second-generation wireless services to be reminded that real-world experiences are megabits apart from their theoretical counterparts.
This is the true digital divide.
AT&T Wireless Services Group recently announced plans to overlay a GPRS system on its TDMA network, to then migrate to an EDGE-based solution and finally to deploy wideband CDMA services. The strategy seems to make sense and has been praised, although some question the need for the EDGE step at all.
AT&T’s migration strategy is a nice path. But the reality is it will most likely be a rocky road, littered with detours and roadblocks and “under construction” signs.
And make no mistake: the evolution path chosen by cdmaOne carriers will have similar pitfalls. Some potential problems in an evolution to GPRS deployments in Europe include handset availability, equipment compatibility and billing problems, according to a recent study by Lehman Brothers.
Handset development is always a problem. An industry joke is that GSM meant God Send Mobiles, which was modified early in 2000 to mean God Send GPRS Mobiles.
In the 3G environment, handset manufacturers will make multimode, multiband terminals capable of carrying music, games, Internet access and streaming video. Meanwhile, phone makers this year have been plagued by component shortages. Handset delays are common business in the industry. Somehow, some place along the way, there will be problems delivering third-generation handsets, especially since those devices will be more complicated than past offerings. It will happen; it’s only a matter of time.
Interoperability was a problem in the rollout of second-generation CDMA services and could very well rear its ugly head again in 3G. These networks are rocket science after all, and kinks need to be worked out. Throw in the confusion between i-mode and WAP and pepper it with a little interoperability promised between W-CDMA services and cdma2000 technology, and name it delay.
Any changes in the economy or ownership of major players (either on the manufacturing or operator side) and again, service rollouts likely could be postponed.
Finally, a nifty new development or technology advancement could cause industry to scrap all previous plans to jump on the new bandwagon.
In other words, life happens.
