HELSINKI, Finland—A sectoral report by Nordea, the largest commercial bank in the Nordic countries and Baltic-rim region, has concluded that Swedish investment in third-generation (3G) cell-phone networks will not take place until 2003 “at the very earliest” and possibly not until 2004.
Telecom operators, including Telia and Orange, had promised to have at least part of their networks operational by the end of 2002. Nordea’s report, which is based on the financing arrangements of Sweden’s 3G license holders, questions the ability of operators to meet the 2002 target.
“The Nordea report will not surprise realists. Operators are having problems on two fronts. First, there are unresolved financing issues. Second, with the technology delayed, the rollout of new networks is also delayed,” said Lars Svensson, a senior telecom analyst with the Stockholm, Sweden-based investment bank Finanso.
The Nordea report estimated Swedish investment in 3G infrastructure to total US$670 million 2002, increasing sharply to US$2.5 billion in 2003. Nordea also predicted that Swedish exports of 3G and mobile technology products will remain depressed in 2002, “with a serious stagnation in volume terms.”
Led by Ericsson, telecom exports decreased 24 percent on year-on-year volume terms in the first half of 2001. Nordea is forecasting a full-year drop of 30 percent, to US$30 billion, for what has become Sweden’s biggest export-driven industry.
