Just how much belief should the United States attach to China’s latest vow to remain technologically neutral on third-generation mobile phone standards in already-likely forever-the world’s largest cell phone market? Or to China’s promise to open its equally attractive telecom services sector to foreign competition? Or to China’s commitment to pare down its export-driven $200 billion trade surplus with the United States? Or to China’s nod to curb intellectual property rights theft that dissuades mobile content developers here and abroad from doing business in China? And so on.
With geopolitics being what they are and the Bush White House in Texas-style free fall, do not count on major breakthroughs on any problem fronts in U.S.-Sino relations. The U.S. currently has waning leverage with Beijing. Meantime, China Inc. is on a roll.
Indeed, it was a stunning study in contrasts last week to see Hu Jintao, the powerful president of China, sitting next to a battle-fatigued U.S. president whose administration is undergoing a shakeup in the face of mounting domestic and foreign political problems.
A clue to how China perhaps sizes up its standing with the United States came only a week before the Hu visit when Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi and a large Chinese business delegation came to town to talk trade and exchange other niceties. Wu was outspoken in largely dismissing trade barriers alleged by U.S. government and industry officials. It was bold, brash, and most certainly calculated. A handful of U.S.-China deals totaling $16.2 billion were signed at that time, including one reportedly worth $300 million to Motorola Inc. That unlikely will go unnoticed by former Motorola executive Susan Schwab, the deputy U.S. trade representative tapped by Bush to replace budget director-bound Rob Portman as part of the administration’s realignment effort.
So Wu leaves town, and the next thing I know China is saying it will wrap up commercial trials of its homegrown TD-SCDMA 3G technology in the third quarter. The TD-SCDMA Industry Alliance, with the Chinese government looking overhead, is the vehicle driving the Chinese-favored standard toward a first-to-market splash in what will become the mother of all 3G markets.
U.S. industry is on the China Inc. bandwagon. How can you blame American companies, seeing that most of China’s 1.3 billion people are just beginning to get a taste of comfy Western goods and services we take for granted. It is the taste of freedom-as in speech and religion, for example-that remains dangerously elusive in China. But then Beijing is getting plenty of help in its great experiment to fuse capitalistic-like commerce and authoritarian rule.
Reporters Without Borders last week reported Yahoo Inc. helped Chinese law enforcement nail pro-democracy activist Jiang Lijun. It is the third time a U.S. Internet firm has been implicated in helping Beijing muzzle a cyber-dissident. Wonder if the issue happened to come up when Hu dined with Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates in the other Washington.
