Short-form may be long-tail for mobile video

It appears the case has been made for mobile TV. The big question now is, what do on-the-go users want to watch?
Once a questionable proposition even for early adopters, wireless video is quickly moving into the mainstream. Dedicated mobile broadcast networks and 3G technologies are beginning to approach the quality of set-top boxes on mobile phones, and some carriers are aggressively marketing their offerings, including video services in data packages at relatively affordable prices.
MobiTV Inc., one of the first players in the space, has grown from roughly 150,000 users three years ago to surpass more than 2 million subscribers earlier this year. And interest in mobile video has doubled since September, according to a report released last week from Compete Inc., with almost 1% of all traffic on the Web sites of tier-one carriers looking into wireless TV. The Boston-based research firm, which tracks online user behavior, found that 13% of 2,500 U.S. customers surveyed said they’d be interested in watching video on their phone.
“I think the main thing we found (in the study) is that people want mobile TV, and they’re willing to pay for it,” said Compete analyst David Kalil. “The last time we did any research on this, there was a very small percentage of users who wanted it at all.”
But as the industry begins to sell consumers on the idea of watching television on their phones-and, perhaps, paying to do it-content providers and network operators are still trying to determine what might lure subscribers to the smallest screen. Perhaps surprisingly, Compete found that users were interested in live broadcasts more than other kinds of content; news clips, weather information, movie trailers and made-for-mobile episodes rounded out consumers’ top five mobile genres.
The study indicates subscribers are looking for mobile video content that mirrors the stuff they watch on their set-top boxes at home, even if the wireless viewing experience may differ. Subscribers may want to check out live, streaming video offerings as opposed to on-demand clips, catching a few minutes of a broadcast as they commute in mass transit, for instance, or wait in line at the mall.
Attractive to downtimers
“There’s the possibility of this being a real medium for what we like to call ‘downtimers,'” said Kalil, “people who are sitting on their butts for long periods of time. If there’s just a stream of video, people are going to watch it.”
But it may be that would-be mobile viewers claim they’d like to watch streaming video simply because that’s what they’re used to watching at home. While on-demand video has certainly gained fans through cable and satellite TV services, the overwhelming number of viewers are watching streaming programming, just as they have done for decades. And carriers are more likely to hook new viewers with familiar content from “CSI,” for instance, than a clip of unknowns dropping candies into soda bottles.
That model is likely to evolve, though, as the lines blur between home TV broadcasts, the Internet and mobile video. As Internet successes like YouTube and Google Video demonstrate, there is a substantial market for both professionally produced and user-generated clips that are delivered in bitesized morsels, when viewers want them. Such content may be particularly well-suited for mobile, where limited screen sizes and time constraints can make a long-form experience painful or impossible.
“I agree that there is a need to have an immediate access to the right content you want to watch,” JupiterResearch analyst Thomas Husson wrote earlier this year. “I tend to believe live TV is essentially a way to sell the video concept. It is easier to sell a well-known TV channel to consumers than an on-demand program on a cell phone. (But) the industry is too much focused on live TV and broadcasting technologies, whereas in the long run, mobile video may deliver more significant opportunities.”
Longer legs
Those opportunities are sure to include Internet-based video from a host of providers. Not only do such offerings allow users to watch what they want when they want, the clips can also be shared by being posted to an Internet site or sent to friends via MMS. And they’re typically ad-supported, in contrast to many premium streaming video services.
“I happen to believe that video clips have much longer-term legs than full TV” in mobile, according to John Puterbaugh, founder of mobile media company Nellymoser Inc. “I still see full TV as a marginal segment, rather than a whole range of isolated clips,” which might have broader appeal.
And short-form clips will quickly gain mobile viewers as more social networking offerings come to wireless. Popular Internet sites such as MySpace and Facebook are increasingly embracing video as the move into mobile, and there is no shortage of pureplay startups through which wireless users can access Web-based videos and share them with friends. Nokia Corp.’s recent acquisition of Seattle’s Twango Inc.-rumored to be worth a cool million-underscored the increasing importance video is likely to play in the mobile social networking space.
So while Qualcomm Inc.’s MediaFLO and Aloha Partners L.P.’s HiWire are sure to deliver high-profile video clips more efficiently to mobile users, there is certain to be room on the playground for companies that leverage the power of Internet video. In fact, it may be the lesser-known, ad-subsidized content that attracts more users in the long run, Puterbaugh predicted.
“Clips from shows, promotions, user-generated video, that’s going to be the much bigger long-tail play,” Puterbaugh said. “It’s going to be free and ad-based. The question is how much the carriers will be on board.”