Laying odds

I know most of us have had almost enough of the 700 MHz auction, what with the lobbying and saber rattling of those interested in the spectrum and the ultimate rule making handed down by the FCC last month.
But, beyond the sexy names of would-be and could-be bidders, chances are the much-touted spectrum will end up in the hands of the names we have all become so familiar with over the years. Just take a look at the last spectrum auction: the AWS spectrum also drew interest from a number of big names outside the traditional wireless space, but where did most of that spectrum end up? In the hands of traditional wireless carriers.
Of the big players, Sprint Nextel seems the least likely to be an aggressive bidder in the 700 MHz proceedings. Sure, the spectrum up for bid has characteristics that make it hard for any serious wireless carrier to pass up, but Sprint Nextel has a boatload of spectrum across multiple bands, including a significant chunk in the 2.5 GHz band it’s using to launch its WiMAX network. Plus, once Sprint Nextel is finished with its ongoing rebanding efforts, it will have a nice slice of spectrum in the 800 MHz band with which to play.
That leaves the big 2 plus T-Mobile USA.
Both AT&T and Verizon Wireless have the resources and growing customer bases to make them likely bidders for some portion of the spectrum up for bid. Both carriers have managed to shore up their rural holdings through recent acquisitions, but densely populated areas are always going to need additional capacity.
AT&T might have a slight edge in that it has a single parent company and thus a more clearly defined leadership heading into the auction, but recent history has shown that Verizon Wireless’ parent’s, Verizon Communications and Vodafone Group, are not afraid to provide the proper funds for their progeny to play in spectrum auctions.
So I would suspect both to be players in the proceedings with a special emphasis on licenses covering the top 50 markets.
This leaves T-Mobile USA. The No. 4 carrier has been the growth darling of parent company Deutsche Telekom and I’m sure DT would be willing to provide the funds necessary to keep its U.S. offspring healthy and happy. Of course, T-Mobile USA is still digesting the $4 billion-plus it spent during the AWS auction for spectrum it plans to use to build out its UMTS/HSPA network, which the carrier said it hopes to begin later this year.
But with college and professional football on the horizon, the 700 MHz betting action will take place outside of Vegas.