Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly feature, Analyst Angle. We’ve collected a group of the industry’s leading analysts to give their outlook on the hot topics in the wireless industry. In the coming weeks look for columns from Jupiter Research’s Julie Ask, iGR’s Iain Gillott and more.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed. So, when faced with a gazillion predictions for wireless networks in 2008 (my own included), I have to figure out which ones are worthy of my limited time and intellect.
In reality, given the sheer number of predictions made (there are a gazillion, remember?) it’s actually easier to identify the trends and issues not worth paying attention to. Don’t get me wrong, as a bona fide, professional analyst, it’s my job to pay attention to all of them. Ultimately, however, in an effort to sell ad space, the press (RCR Wireless News excepted) often over-hypes things – dedicating lots of copy to technologies and events that aren’t really moving the market forward or aren’t really evolved from where they were in 2007.
It may just be a result of getting in touch with my inner-curmudgeon, but based on the trends predicted for 2008, and likelihood of how they will develop, some are clearly worthy of the term, “over-hyped.”
WiMAX Certifications: As promised (just barely), the WiMAX Forum opened up its labs (well, one lab, really) in December for mobile WiMAX certification testing. The expectation is that 802.16e-based products will start earning the forum’s stamp of approval by mid-year with, “hundreds of devices to go through certification,” over the course of the year. The larger hope is that certification will drive operators currently testing the technology (300-plus by some estimates) into broader, commercial deployments.
In reality, certification may be little more than a formality. Why?
1) Operators wouldn’t be deploying kit that they didn’t think complied (at least somewhat) to the 802.16e standard and WiMAX Forum profiles.
2) The forum’s plugfests have helped to get vendors roughly in-line in terms standards implementations.
3) Even if you don’t agree with points one and two, consider the following: Some so-called mobile WiMAX products may never get certified (to be a stickler, though, it can’t be called WiMAX until it’s certified). Implementations in potentially popular bands such as 5 GHz or 1.5 GHz may always remain relative niches, never garnering enough interest from vendors to warrant the creation of WiMAX profiles in these bands. And, while Taiwan is oft painted as a hotbed of WiMAX device development, vendors there are reportedly bristling at the prospect of costly certification testing, setting the stage for certification delays or two tiers of products (fully certified and compliant, but not certified). Now, that would be buzz-worthy.
Long Term Evolution: If only in trade shows, WiMAX and LTE seem inextricably linked – usually separated by the word, “versus.” And, as with WiMAX, the LTE market will steadily develop throughout 2008. Tradeshow booths will be filled with prototype LTE systems. The 3GPP should make progress on getting the standard completed. Trials (based on finalized radio interface specs) will take place. Additional operators will declare their allegiance to 4G. Yep, it will be a good year for LTE . and we’ll hear about it often.
None of these trials or demos, however, will change the facts. Commercial kit won’t be available until sometime next year (if vendors can kick their R&D teams into action amongst the usual layoffs and reorganizations); until then, we won’t know how any vendor’s solutions actually perform. Broader field trials will likely be a 2010 phenomenon given the habit of device availability trailing networks by a good margin. This means that commercial service deployments might be expected in the 2011 timeframe. Considering the fact that operators will continue to ramp up 3G usage, that might even be optimistic. So, at the end of the day, enjoy the show floor demos, pick up a few flashing toys for your kids at home and know this: The LTE landscape at the end of 2008 should look a lot like it did at the end of 2007. LTE will be broadly accepted as a dominant 4G standard, but services will be years away and real-world performance will be a question mark.
700 MHz spectrum: With all due respect to my troglodytic (cave-dwelling for those didn’t get My Word Coach for your Nintendo this Christmas) friends, the FCC’s 700 MHz auction begins later this month. In the run-up, intrigue around who will bid, how much they will bid, and the bidding/service rules they will face has provided fodder for nearly daily news. Once the bidding begins, we’ll get day by day (and hour by hour) updates on the auction process and what it means for the U.S. telecom landscape. I personally plan to avoid the fray by being in the middle of the ocean when the auctions start and then retreat to the West Virginia border (true story, I go from vacation to our annual corporate retreat at The Homestead). The buzz, however, is somewhat understandable, given the propagation characteristics at 700 MHz (great for broad coverage and in-building penetration), and the fact that it could support new market entrants . not to mention the potential for 700 MHz developing into globally standardized wireless spectrum.
But, what’s going to happen this year? Auctions will take place and spectrum will be allocated. Networks, however, won’t get deployed; I’m planning to continue watching analog TV with my old rabbit ears right up until I can’t anymore. More importantly, operators looking to 700 MHz as a platform for their 4G networks may need to wait for several years before they can even get access to the equipment they need (see rant above).
And, the value of propagation and global standardization? The prospect of 700 MHz spectrum being available around the globe will doubtless bid up the value of the band here in the U.S. and price me out of winning the B-Block CMA covering my house.
Yet, it will take years, if ever, before other countries can move on the band. By that point the costs of developing multi-band devices should be lower, perhaps thanks to innovations like software-defined transceivers. At that point, any operator building out a 4G network should be building for capacity and FMC solutions leveraging Wi-Fi or femtocells (or something we haven’t yet heard of) should solve most of our in-building coverage problems (cue the anti-femtocell rhetoric).
Femtocells: Speaking of femtocells . I like femtocells. I even have one on my desk; it’s a mostly-empty mock up handed to me last year as one of the industry’s pioneers was looking to empty out their booth at the end of 3GSM (back when it was still called 3GSM). 2008 should be a banner year for the little boxes since trials will start taking place beyond the more limited moves in 2007. These trials, in turn, will be critical for providing insights into how (or if) the products work. Just as we’ve heard about most major femtocell RFPs and commitments, we’ll hear about these trials as they move forward (often thanks to tradeshow sessions). What these trials won’t do is provide any immediate answers.
Yep, 2008 will be a year of figuring out what makes sense: the best business models, the best mobile core integration options, the best device management strategies, the best interference mitigation strategies, the reality of zero-touch installations, the tradeoff between products filled with bells and/or whistles and a bill-of-materials that can support profitable services. To this end, Sprint Nextel deserves credit for getting the ball rolling early, deploying commercial services instead of waiting for others to figure it all out. Yet, for all of the femtocell buzz (some of it warranted), 2008 will be largely about setting the stage for 2009.
Mobile backhaul: It is fair to say that mobile backhaul hasn’t traditionally been a topic generating lots of buzz or hype. If mobile devices are an accessible topic, and the radio access network is somewhat less accessi
ble, the mobile core is a black box that few people look into on a regular basis . and the pipes that connect the RAN to the core ain’t no Jennifer Love Hewitt (i.e., sexy – no matter what the blogs and tabloids say). This year, however, we’ll see a steady flow of news around mobile backhaul if only because a trend towards more capacity at the base station means that operators will need new solutions to deal with all the new traffic this promises.
This isn’t a new problem. Ever since operators began moving on 3G, we’ve heard that traditional backhaul strategies based on T1/E1 and low-capacity microwave simply weren’t tenable. Operators understand the problem. In the near-term, however, they’ll look to put off new capex and opex until absolutely necessary . and given the spotty, creeping uptake of mobile data services, this could take some time. They may even wait until moves on 4G can justify larger fiber builds.
What may be hype-worthy, however, will be any moves to actually limit backhaul spend and backhaul requirements by pushing functionality to the edge of the network (caching content at the cell site, in an extreme form) along with broader moves to outsource backhaul functions (i.e., the FiberTower and NextLink business models).
The death of muni Wi-Fi: Hey, have you heard the news? Muni Wi-Fi died last year; it turns out that Dewey Cox managed to outlive it. Stalled launches in some markets and limited uptake in others crippled it. EarthLink’s decision to pull back from the space dealt the final blow. This year, we’ll hear more and more people herald the death of the sector – especially if vendor consolidation begins to take place . and it will. We’ll also hear how metro-scale Wi-Fi is successfully supporting public safety and municipal (meter reading, building automation, utility management, etc.) applications.
Confusing? The reality is that muni Wi-Fi never died. The public access model focused on large metropolitan markets with no solid business model for their muni Wi-Fi network did. It probably won’t be revived this year. But, broad-coverage Wi-Fi still makes sense as a technology for many applications, in many markets; public access can even make sense where fixed-line competition is limited. Unfortunately, I doubt that the market’s vendors (some of whom will struggle to stay afloat in a crowded market) will band together to make this point clear.
