THE DUST SURE TO BE LEFT in the wake of the 700 MHz auction is far from settled – with the final outcomes still unknown – yet, infrastructure vendors say they’ll be ready for buildout plans the moment existing carriers or new entrants are ready to pull the trigger.
“You’re basically pointing your guns at 2009 and what the market looks like,” said Sandip Mukerjee, VP of wireless portfolio and strategy at Alcatel-Lucent. “We’re very confident that if somebody wanted to deploy these technologies in 2009, we will be ready.”
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That’s when the Federal Communications Commission is requiring TV broadcasters to free up the spectrum and transition to an entirely digital transmission.
“Traditionally clearing spectrum; it’s a fragmented bitty process that you have to do,” said Mark Slater, Nokia Siemens Networks’ VP of strategy and business development in North America.
New networks by 2011
Historically it’s taken 18 to 24 months for a new network ecosystem to flourish, Mukerjee added.
“You’re really looking at 2011” before networks begin operating in blocks of spectrum between 698 MHz and 806 MHz, he said. Existing carriers might simply be able to add new radios to their existing towers or add another component to their network framework, but that will depend on the spectrum they currently operate in and what type of technology they plan to use.
“Whether people deploy new base stations, it’s really a function of their strategy; do they want to go after in-building, do they want to go on a macro level?” Mukerjee said.
Because the spectrum has the ability to cover greater distances with less power, many expect network deployment be to quicker and less expensive than previous network buildouts.
Not just for talking
However, there will be significant backhaul issues to deal with as well, with carriers looking to provide much faster broadband-like speeds over their network.
“We don’t think of 700 MHz as one monolithic opportunity,” Mukerjee said.
“The value proposition isn’t only based on talking to somebody while I’m driving 60 MPH,” Mukerjee said. “We don’t believe that next-generation wireless is only about wireless; it’s about next-generation communications.”
Mukerjee noted that the oldest baby boomers will be reaching retirement age when these services come to market. At the same time, new, younger subscribers will come on board, asking for more media-centric services and communications that go beyond voice.
“The whole ecosystem is going to come together and it’s going to come together in a timely fashion,” Slater said. “The key, of course, is who’s going to win the spectrum auction.”
Existing operators typically have a network infrastructure strategy team in-house, while new entrants most likely would require companies like NSN to consult with them on possible scenarios for deployment. “We look at the business from an end-to-end perspective,” Slater said. “What we see is that it’s important for a network operator . to really fully understand the end-to-end environment.”
Building out any kind of radio network infrastructure is a large commitment, he said. “I think you’ve just got to consider, no matter who you are, just be really clear what role 700 MHz is going to play.”
“A network buildout always consists of a number of developments,” said Bastian Schoell, Nortel Networks Corp.’s director of wireless business development. “Nortel has equipment that can address a number of different buildout models.”
Indeed, all three vendors said base stations are ready or will be ready in time for network deployments. “Equipment is not the limiting factor,” Schoell said.
Deploying networks for new entrants always takes longer, he said. One year would be very aggressive for an entirely new network to get deployed while three years is more likely. Existing operators could expand their existing networks in as little as 12 to 18 months, he added. “Nortel is really focused very seriously on providing a strategy of product for our existing partners that would let them upgrade,” Schoell said.
