Black Friday Smackdown: How will the fourth-quarter shopping season affect cellphone sales?

So the fourth quarter showdown is finally here. And it seems that this year, it will truly be a battle royale.
Think about it: This is the year of touchscreens and smartphones. It’s the year of unlimited calling and data plans. It’s the year of widespread 3G networks. It’s the year of mainstream text messaging, average data ARPUs of around $11, ubiquitous camera phones and App Stores.
It’s a year when the New York Times wrote a story about how our new president is probably going to have to give up one of his most prized communication tools: his BlackBerry.
And so, here we are, at the critical fourth-quarter holiday shopping season, a time of year when the wireless industry pulls out all the stops in an attempt to generate hype, sales and – ultimately – profits.
Add into this mix a global financial credit crisis of Great Depression proportions, and you have a recipe for all-out wireless war.
For those in the know, it will be great to watch.
Will the G1 boost T-Mobile USA’s fortunes? (According to Taiwanese Web site Digitimes, G1 maker HTC expects to sell 1 million of the gadgets by the end of the year.) And will T-Mobile USA’s new data push (which includes a revamped application storefront and newly launched 3G network) refresh its position as an innovator among the nation’s top-tier carriers?
Will Verizon Wireless’ bet on the BlackBerry Storm be enough to outpace rival AT&T Mobility’s iPhone 3G? Can Storm maker Research In Motion – a veteran in the wireless enterprise market – stand against Apple’s hip and trendy, consumer-focused onslaught?
And will Sprint Nextel’s new marketing campaign reverse the carrier’s sagging fortunes? Or will it need to fall back on its WiMAX effort with Clearwire to soothe exasperated investors?
And what of the rest of the market – the Nokias and MetroPCSs and MediaFLOs and Handangos of the world? Will their businesses be buoyed by these epic battles, or will they fade into the background with push to talk, Disney Mobile and the Razr2?
See what I mean?
Throughout most of the year, the wireless industry is essentially on cruise control, reacting to competitive concerns and positioning business for the future. But during the fourth quarter, and especially up to and after Black Friday, the wireless industry fires on all cylinders – quite a sight for those who know what they’re looking at.
So I for one am happy to sit back, relax and see who emerges from the dust. And who doesn’t.