Kagan: Will private 5G wireless become the next big thing?

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Over the past several years, I have visited with and been briefed by several private wireless providers of all sizes. Some are stronger than others. Some are larger. Some are going it alone, while others are partnering or involved in M&A. Some focus only on wireless, while others include wireline. That being said, let me share some of what I’ve learned during the past year or two. I believe this is important for investors, customers and workers.

One: Private wireless, or private networks, are not all created equally. These are high-level catchphrases that include very different companies across different subsectors.

Two: Remember there’s a growth wave, with three sides — the rising side, the cresting top and the falling side. Different technologies sit at different points on that wave.

Fortunately, private wireless is still relatively new. That means, generally speaking, most players are on the growth side. But not all sectors are growing at the same rate.

Ericsson, Nokia and Huawei led global private RAN suppliers in 2024

There’s ongoing debate about private wireless and its growth potential. Some segments showed strong momentum over the past year.

It’s said that Ericsson, Nokia and Huawei led the race for global private RAN suppliers in 2024. But there are plenty of other players making progress in this growing sector.

Another key question: When will private wireless become a solid, long-term growth engine? And if it does, how big will it actually become? Will it be a major driver or just a modest addition?

Compare private wireless to the iPhone and Android of nearly 20 years ago

Think back almost two decades, when the first iPhone and Android devices were introduced. There was plenty of buzz, but at first, they weren’t the powerful competitors to BlackBerry many expected.

At the time, the industry thought users didn’t understand apps and wireless data. So, they gave away data access for free. That took away the fear and let the market explore. And explore it did.

Even though we were addicted to our BlackBerrys, they only offered a few hundred apps —though back then, we didn’t call them that. They were “features.”

Then came the app explosion. Today, we have millions of apps. What started as a handful of games has grown into something that controls much of our lives.

Today, iPhone, Android and Galaxy dominate wireless. A new wave of wireless growth began — and BlackBerry, the previous leader, faded into history.

Are private 5G, wireless broadband and AI the next growth waves?

Now, traditional wireless growth is slowing again. So the industry is once more searching for the next big thing.

Private wireless and private networks have entered the conversation. It’s a new and growing area.

I’ve spoken with many companies across different corners of the private wireless world.

What I’ve learned is this: while some are stronger than others, the entire sector deserves attention.

The lingering questions are: When will it really take off? And will it surpass traditional wireless growth — or just add to it?

FWA allows wireless carriers to offer broadband.

Besides private wireless, FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) is helping mobile carriers expand into home and business broadband. AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon are all moving into this space — and it’s growing.

AI is another area of potential growth. Artificial intelligence helps identify trouble spots in the network before they cause outages. And if something does go wrong, AI can reroute traffic, solve the issue and restore service — often without the user even noticing.

AI can also enable new features and services — possibly even a new wave of app-driven growth for the wireless industry.

HPE, Juniper Networks, Celona, Boingo, Boldyn, Airspan, Nokia and more

Alongside AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon, many smaller players are making moves in the private wireless space.

These include AWS, Kajeet, Celona, Boingo Wireless, Boldyn Networks, Traran Wireless, Kodia Network, Metronet, Towerstream, Airspan Networks, Anterix, Edzcom, Ambra Solutions and others offering both wireless and wireline services.

Meanwhile, major tech companies are realigning to play in this space — for example, HPE’s acquisition of Juniper Networks.

Once again, the question is: how big will these companies — and this sector — become?

Wireless remains one of our most innovative and resilient sectors.

Looking ahead, maybe we won’t see one single “big bang” innovation. Maybe it will come through a series of smaller waves. We’ll have to wait and see.

But staying plugged into these shifts is essential because this is where the industry is heading.

In the meantime, smaller innovation waves may help carry wireless forward — until the next big one arrives.

The good news: networks, device makers, infrastructure builders and tech vendors are all pushing hard in their own ways to create the next major wireless breakthrough.

And over the past 10 to 20 years, nearly every industry — from auto to agriculture — has embraced wireless as a foundation for progress.

I believe the future of wireless splits into two tracks:

1. How individuals use wireless in everyday life
2. How companies and technologies rely on wireless to function

Wireless continues to be one of the most important and long-lasting technologies we have. But the nature of growth will keep evolving.

So — will private 5G wireless be the next big wave? It’s still too early to say for sure. But it’s not going away. The real question is: how big, and how important, will it become?

While we don’t know exactly what the future looks like, one thing is clear: wireless is still one of the most dynamic and fast-changing sectors we’ve ever seen.