Small Cell Forum forecasts 61m small-cell shipments by 2030, driven by indoor enterprise demand, neutral-host growth, edge integration, 5G SA adoption, and mmWave use. The industry will generate $4.23bn revenues despite economic pressures, it reckons.
In sum – what to know:
Unit shipments – to hit 61m by 2030, with revenues reaching $4.23bn, driven by indoor and neutral-host deployments.
Neutral host – share in enterprise rollouts will double to 28%, while 5G SA and mmWave deployments will also grow rapidly.
Edge integration – will accelerate, with two-thirds of enterprise small cells co-located with edge compute for AI-enhanced services.
Cumulative shipments of small cells will reach 61 million units by 2030, says Small Cell Forum, covering an installed base of 54.5 million radio units in the timeframe. The group has raised its baseline forecast to a compound growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4 percent per annum, up from 8.6 percent a year ago, through the period. The uptick is based on a projected surge in indoor enterprise deployments, notably with neutral-host networks in a range of sectors. Annual revenues for vendors and integrators will reach $4.23 billion by the end of the decade, it said..
Indoor small-cell deployments will account for 60 percent of all rollouts in 2023–2024 (when the figures are confirmed), holding more-or-less steady at about 54 percent by 2030. SCF said: “Growth is being driven by a variety of enterprise use cases, from advanced automation and industrial IoT to high-capacity retail and public-sector connectivity. To meet this demand at scale, neutral host models are playing a growing role that complements traditional operator-led deployment.”
The share of enterprise small cells deployed and operated by neutral hosts is expected to double from 14 percent to 28 percent by 2030, making it the fastest-growing business model in the sector, said SCF. Neutral host adoption in public networks is also rising, forecast to reach 27 percent of new deployments by 2030, up from eight percent in 2023, it said. SCF notes certain other trends, including that standalone 5G (5G SA) small cells will grow rapidly, with a forecast CAGR of 56 percent during the period.
As well, edge integration is accelerating, with 66 percent of enterprise small cells expected to be co-located with edge compute by 2030 – “enabling new low-latency and AI-enhanced services”, said SCF. Meanwhile, millimetre wave (mmWave) – or Frequency Range 2 (FR2) in 5G-speak – spectrum is becoming more critical in dense environments. By 2030, 43 percent of new small cells will be deployed in FR2 bands, with a CAGR of nearly 37 percent. SCF polled 96 mobile operator sand service providers for its latest annual report, available here.
Prabhakar Chitrapu, chair of SCF, said: “Despite continued economic pressures, the small cell industry has shown strong adaptability – driven by enterprise demand, deployment innovation and the convergence of network and IT infrastructure. This forecast highlights the importance of collaboration across all types of deployers and solution providers to ensure future-ready connectivity.”
Simon Fletcher, chief strategy officer at SCF, said: “Neutral host infrastructure enables more flexible, cost-effective and sustainable deployment benefiting mobile operators, enterprises, vendors and the wider ecosystem. SCF’s work on blueprints, specifications and cross-industry frameworks is helping make shared infrastructure commercially viable and technically scalable… By aligning technology choices with real deployment requirements, SCF is helping the ecosystem prepare for what’s next – not just for 5G-Advanced, but also for the early phases of 6G.”
The report warns that closing gaps between standards development and regulation is “more important than ever”. It stated: “Considerable work is still required to turn specifications into complete solutions that are fully aligned with the needs of customers and provide a common blueprint for deployers.” The group is coordinating ecosystem efforts on technical and commercial blueprints for in-building and neutral host models, as well as specifications for open interfaces and shared infrastructure, deployment tools and frameworks, and regulation and policy work.
