Matthew Iji, head of data modelling and forecasting at GSMA Intelligence, told RCR that 6G will move from selective launches to global scale gradually, with coexistence rather than wholesale replacement defining the early 6G era
In sum – what to know
Economics sets the pace – Capacity will drive initial 6G demand, but operators must secure returns while continuing to monetize 5G and 5G-Advanced.
AI changes traffic – AI-enabled cameras, wearables, sensors and XR devices could increase traffic generation and put greater pressure on uplink capacity, latency and reliability.
Adoption remains uneven – GSMA Intelligence forecasts 2.4 billion 6G connections by 2035, while 5G still accounts for around 60% of global mobile connections.
Mobile operators’ returns on investment, rather than capacity demand alone, will determine the pace of 6G adoption, according to Matthew Iji, head of data modelling and forecasting at GSMA Intelligence.
The research organization forecasts that 6G will reach approximately 2.4 billion connections globally by 2035, but Iji expects the transition to unfold gradually as operators balance investment in the next generation against opportunities to monetize existing 5G and 5G-Advanced networks.
“Capacity will create the initial need, but operator economics will set the pace. New use cases can accelerate adoption, particularly around AI, ubiquitous connectivity and sensing, but operators will need a clear return on investment while they are still monetising 5G and 5G-Advanced,” Iji told RCR Wireless News.
GSMA Intelligence forecasts approximately 50 million 6G connections by the end of 2030, increasing to around 275 million in 2031 and nearly 740 million in 2032. The total is expected to exceed one billion in 2033, reaching approximately 1.3 billion that year before climbing to 1.9 billion in 2034 and 2.4 billion in 2035.
“That is why we expect 6G to move from selective launches to global scale gradually, with coexistence rather than wholesale replacement defining the early 6G era,” Iji said.
Despite that growth, 6G will not immediately replace earlier generations. By the end of 2035, the organization expects 5G to account for around 60% of global mobile connections, compared with 23% for 6G and 17% for 4G.
AI-enabled devices and applications could become an important factor in future mobile traffic growth, particularly as connected devices increasingly generate and upload content instead of primarily consuming it. “AI could change both the volume and the direction of traffic. Today’s devices mainly consume content, but AI-enabled cameras, wearables, sensors and XR devices will increasingly generate and upload it. That shifts pressure onto uplink capacity, latency and reliability,” he said.
The GSMA Intelligence forecast projects monthly mobile network traffic will increase from around 144 exabytes in 2025 to 604 exabytes in 2035. The report identifies AI and extended reality among the traffic categories expected to grow particularly strongly.
AI is also expected to become more deeply integrated into network operations, according to Iji, with potential applications including resource allocation and energy management.
He pointed to the Next G Alliance’s work on AI-native networking, which aims to improve network robustness, performance, and efficiency as traffic types, deployment topologies, and spectrum environments become more complex.
The timing of 6G adoption is also expected to vary according to each market’s existing technology base and investment priorities. Iji said: “We should distinguish between mature markets that adopt 6G selectively and emerging markets where adoption begins later.”
He expects Europe to have a mature 5G base but said operators may continue extracting value from 5G-Advanced rather than immediately pursuing broad 6G deployment. In parts of the developing world, operators will still be extending 5G coverage and migrating users from 4G.
“Both create a delay, but for different reasons: one is driven by investment optimisation, the other by the stage of the technology cycle,” Iji added.
The regional forecasts reflect those differences. By the end of 2035, around half of mobile connections in North America are forecast to use 6G, with East Asia also expected to be at the forefront. Europe is projected to reach approximately one-quarter adoption, while several emerging-market regions are forecast to remain below 10%.
For operators, the forecasts point to a transition shaped by both market conditions and investment decisions. Although capacity demand and new AI-related use cases will support the move toward 6G, operators will continue to weigh the business case for deployment against the value still available from earlier network generations.
