Long-term study predicts U.S. cellphone penetration rates to pass 100%

About 84% of the U.S. population will own and use a mobile phone by the end of the year, according to a new study by research company SNL Kagan. Additionally, the number of cellphone users is projected to surge past 100% by 2013, a number that includes users with more than one cellphone.
SNL Kagan also predicted U.S. cellphone subscriptions to grow at a rate of about 3% per year over the next decade versus a total population growth estimate of only 1%. The forecast anticipates increased data use, including text, Web and video, which could be accelerated by emerging advertising-supported distribution models.
Total industry average revenue per user is expected to grow at an inflation-paced compound annual growth rate of 1.5% over the next 10 years, from $52.38 today to $61.09 by 2017, according to the study.
“If carriers can hold onto their position in the revenue chain, data is poised to give them a second growth spurt,” said Sharon Armbrust, a senior analyst at SNL Kagan. “While subscriber units and voice revenue will inch along, we expect data revenue to grow at a compound annual 14% rate over the next 10 years, rising to at least 22% of service revenue, compared to under 10% today.”