Let me start by saying a sincere and heartfelt thank you! Someone just said to me that I have been an industry analyst and columnist for nearly four decades. How, over that time I have been sharing thoughts, analysis and insight into the news of the changing industry. Over time I have talked with competitors, executives, investors, workers and users. Many want to hear about what’s coming and want to get their messages out about their products or services.
I have been told being in this industry nearly 40 years has given me a unique perspective on growth, change, transformation and where we are heading next. That may be so. It does give me a clear vision of where we are heading.
This is one of the most interesting and engaging spaces in the world today. I enjoy following the strengths and weaknesses, and the rise and fall of companies, technologies and industries.
There has been plenty of change over the years and this rapid pace of transformation is only accelerating.
Where we were, where we are today and where we are heading tomorrow
Understanding where we’ve come from and knowing where we are today helps us see the direction we are heading into tomorrow.
That is one of several key’s to better understanding this evolving industry.
Having such a high-profile in the industry has given me a unique opportunity to mix and mingle with countless CEOs, industry leaders, politicians and thought leaders.
That’s where I have learned so many valuable lessons about success, failure and the struggle we all face every day, both in our companies and in ourselves.
Growth wave continues to reinvent industries and companies
Remember, everything in the industry is always in flux.
The industry, companies and technologies are always changing. That means the future direction of growth in the industry, opportunities and challenges is also changing.
Over time, I have met with and advised countless competitors in the space. I like to help executives pull the camera back and see the larger, long-term, historical perspective.
It’s so important to understand where we were, then where we are today to have a clue at where we are heading tomorrow.
Knowing the direction of the industry helps us better understand how to steer companies to stay on that growth wave and not get thrown off.
Executives need to keep their eyes on the changes that are occurring and prepare. If not, they will miss the direction of the industry and ultimately become irrelevant.
Companies must stay on their growth curve and create the next wave
Every growth wave typically rises, crests and ultimately falls. They have a lifespan. Some are longer than others.
Companies need to continue to ride their own “growth curve” and they need to create the next one to continue corporate growth.
To do this, senior executives need to understand the larger change wave that is continually sweeping over their industry.
Over time I have discussed this growth wave theory in many columns and speeches. This is important for companies, products and services, but it is also important for individuals.
I have tracked the journey the industry and individual companies are on. Sometimes they are on the right track. Other times they are not.
We have all watched some companies continue to grow and succeed long-term.
We have also seen others first grow, then crest, then ultimately struggle because they did not create the next growth wave.
In fact, some companies have been successful for decades until they ultimately fell off the growth wave.
There is a reason for this.
Some CEOs fully understand this growth wave theory, while others do not. Those who ultimately fail never realized their growth wave would eventually fade away and they didn’t prepare with the next.
Wireless, telecom, pay TV, internet, IoT, AI, AR, VR, metaverse
The industry has dramatically changed over time and continues to do so moving forward.
· Decades ago, communications industry leaders were simply local phone companies and long-distance players. They grew until the late 1990’s. Today, that growth wave has crested and is falling.
· Next, were early basic wireless, cable TV and Internet players. These services have grown, crested and are now falling.
· Today, leaders are those in the newer and more advanced spaces like high-speed wireless, other industries using wireless, pay TV, Internet, telecom, IoT, AI, health tech, AR, VR, machine learning and more. This group is still on the growing side of the growth wave with new technology. Many companies continue to grow while others who have not updated are struggling.
· Tomorrow the pace of change continues and accelerates with new ideas, new thinking and new technologies like the Metaverse, autonomous driving, crypto currency, social media and so much more. Some of these companies are still in the very early stages of their growth curve. Which ones will continue to succeed and which will not?
Apple, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Google, Ericsson, Verizon, T-Mobile, AT&T
We’ve seen the results with various companies who either continue to grow or have crested and now struggle.
Some companies and some industries continue to grow as strong as ever. These are companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Qualcomm, Nokia, Ericsson and others.
We have also seen plenty of past industry leaders watch their growth curve rise, crest then fall or at best, struggle.
These companies did not have the next growth wave ready to replace the old one. Think about companies like Blackberry, Motorola, AOL, Yahoo, Prodigy and so many others.
Even successful companies do not succeed everywhere. Consider Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and others who are successful at their main driver but failed at the wireless and smartphone sector.
Lessons learned from successes, failures and change
Over time, I have shared quite a few valuable lessons which I have learned with you in my columns.
These are the lessons we all need to learn to better understand how to succeed, whether we are a worker, investor, customer or executive.
Going forward, these will be the stories I continue to focus on over coming decades as I follow the industry, technologies and companies.
Thank you for allowing me to share thoughts with you over four decades
So, once again, thank you for the privilege of talking with you through my columns and speeches. And for giving me the unique opportunity to develop a long-term role in our exciting and rapidly changing and growing industry.
I love finding and telling the stories of growth from companies about their products and services and for investments watching the industry continue on its long-term march into tomorrow.
The good news is that the future looks brighter than ever. It looks much different from the past, but that’s the path innovation is supposed to take.
It’s uncomfortable because we never know the exact direction of the industry or the success of companies in the early stages. But that’s typical.
Remember, we thought we knew the direction of the wireless and smartphone industry when Blackberry and Motorola lead it and all we had was a couple hundred apps. Then it suddenly changed, and the Apple iPhone and Google Android took over the space almost overnight and today the app count is in the millions.
Just remember, the industry continually changes and grows. We must understand and stay on the growth wave in order to have long-term success.
So, it is our job to make sure we stay plugged in and understand the direction we are heading. That’s the only way to succeed and profit from the transformation we continue to go through over time as an executive, worker, investor or user.
