Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly Reality Check column. We’ve gathered a group of visionaries and veterans in the mobile industry to give their insights into the marketplace.
Greetings from Kansas City, where playoff hopes are alive – for our professional soccer team. August is a more reflective month in technology – people take vacations (except the M&A folks working the Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) vs. Dell Inc. (DELL) fight for 3Par Inc. (PAR)), the government takes a break from additional regulations, and we start to think about the fall/holiday selling season across the wireless retail sector.
This week also marks the one year anniversary of the formation of Mobile Symmetry. Yes, we’ve been at this second iteration (groups/micro directories focus) for just under five months and finally we have birthed a database. Many of you will be receiving messages to start Alpha testing (remember, this is Alpha – some of the corners and walls are still unpainted but the foundation and framework is in place), and we would like you to kick the tires – hard. We have seven Beta customers who are patiently waiting to get going but we need a strong Alpha test to make a strong first impression. Look for more information on just after Labor Day.
We also received our first investor commitment this week (yes, we’ve self-funded to this point). This “yes” vote was another great feeling – someone else shares our vision. Hopefully by next week we have our first mega-customer.
When we initiated Mobile Symmetry, one of the things we started to do was categorize the handset market. A year ago, Research In Motion Ltd.’s (RIM) BlackBerry and Microsoft Corp.’s (MSFT) Windows Mobile dominated the marketplace (Verizon Wireless (VZ) did not carry an alternative phone until the introduction of the Motorola Inc. (MOT) Droid in Nov. 2009). On top of BlackBerry and Windows Mobile, AT&T Mobility (T) had Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) iPhone and briefly marketed a couple of phones running Nokia Corp.’s (NOK) Symbian operating system. Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) was the exclusive provider of Palm Inc.’s Pre. T-Mobile USA Inc. (DTEGY) had just introduced a new phone powered by Google Inc.’s (GOOG) Android OS called myTouch which complemented the pioneering G1 Android device.
Here’s the Sept. 25, 2009, charts for AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless (smart phones are to the right). 
That was then. Look what’s happened in a year
What a difference a year makes. Gone are the BlackBerry Pearl, BlackBerry Flip, and the iconic 8703 series. HTC Corp. continues to stick it out with Windows Mobile, but few new iterations have been introduced. And, most importantly, almost all of the new models are Android Green, even at AT&T Mobility.
Don’t get me wrong – a vast selection of Dell or Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. phones is not going to suddenly cause AT&T Mobility sales representatives to ignore the iPhone. But the flood of Android devices will attract a lot more attention from the application programmer community. Which means that the next “Angry Birds” application might come from Google’s developers, not Apple’s.
While the smart phone category will continue to grow well into the future, you have to think that the sea of green in the above slide has the BlackBerry folks concerned. They are not showcased at either Verizon Wireless (Droid) or AT&T Mobility (iPhone), although they continue to hold their own in specific business market segments. BlackBerry has not held a prominent smart phone position at T-Mobile USA since the G1, and with five of the top eight phones from Android, the share of sales “voice” is against BlackBerry (go to T-Mobile USA’s website, where they proudly proclaim “T-Mobile is Your Android Expert”) . That leaves Sprint Nextel, who is struggling to make BlackBerry a 4G sell (millisecond e-mail doesn’t have the same ring as Google Maps or Latitude). BlackBerry will continue to grow – the Curve is the Corolla/Civic/Chevrolet of smart phones, but they will be challenged to compete at the higher end.
One final observation on the chart above: Look at the Verizon Wireless “top box” – Droid X, Incredible, Droid 2, and likely an LTE-capable iPhone in the offing. That’s no Pixi dust – it’s an all star lineup, especially with a strong data network.
This has been a year of Android adoption – will the rest of 2010 and 2011 be the period of Android applications? With Google’s searchable, friendlier interface, applications will have more utility. The entire range of applications can survive and thrive, not just the top ones. Google also has more association with the “cloud” than Apple, and connected applications could have a greater and faster chance of success (especially when inter-application connectivity starts to become more relevant).
Android has gone from one carrier and two devices to five carriers (including Leap Wireless International Inc., once they restock) and 22 devices in one year. Android is the operating system for the first and second 4G phones with more on the way. A searchable database and integrated applications that leverage Google’s backbone are also coming. Are we seeing the first signs of an Android Nation? To use a political analogy, can Android rise from dark horse to Apple challenger in less than two years?
The answer is the hands of the development community. Make it easy to monetize, test, connect and manage, and Google very well could win. But the slightest slip or flinch, and momentum flows back to Apple. Consumers (and carrier data network adoption rates) are the big winners here. It’ll be a fun time to participate.
Jim Patterson is CEO & co-founder of Mobile Symmetry, a start-up created for carriers to solve the problems of an increasingly mobile-only society. He was most recently President – Wholesale Services for Sprint and has a career that spans over eighteen years in telecom and technology. He welcomes your comments [email protected].
