Analyst Angle: One platform to rule them all : Cross-platform, cross-device application tools have a long way to go before Nirvana is achieved

In February, Intel and Nokia announced that they were merging their open-source Linux initiatives into a single project called MeeGo. On its face, what’s not to like about MeeGo? It has a catchy name. It will result in the creation of a Linux platform that, theoretically at least, will support a wide range of device segments including smart phones, netbooks, tablets, media phones, IPTV devices, etc., and it will be supported by a critical mass of developers and manufacturers around the world that are part of the Nokia and Intel ecosystems.
For both Nokia and Intel, MeeGo appears to be a step in the right direction. The combination of the world’s largest handset devices manufacturer and the world’s largest chip manufacturer will certainly give momentum to MeeGo. Nokia will benefit because developers will now begin viewing its Maemo platform as something more than a niche platform. For Intel, the alliance with Nokia will add credibility to its mobility initiatives, particularly Intel’s Moblin platform, which targeted netbooks.
But to all you developers out there, I know what you are thinking! Here is another application tool you need to cater to when managing your projects.
Cross-platform tools are no Nirvana for developers
Really though, who are we kidding? Building a truly cross-platform, cross-device application tool, which is the stated aim of MeeGo, is going to be extremely difficult. MeeGo is slated to support multiple hardware architectures (both x86 and ARM-based) AND multi-screen, multi-vendor devices by using Qt, Nokia’s application development tool.
The problem I have with that vision is Qt is yet to be proven in its stated goal of making application development OS neutral, let alone being adapted to other mobile devices. While Qt is certainly a powerful tool (Qt applications are written in C++), the applications developed on it thus far have been really niche and the cross-device part of Qt applications is certainly not tested on the thousands of mobile device models produced by handset manufacturers each year, let alone other device categories.
I shudder to think about the issues that developers will be facing in ensuring that the interfaces (machine and user) they need to go through to ensure that applications work on devices using MeeGo along with the other cross-platform tools such as HTML 5, Silverlight, Flash, and AIR already being used by developers. Simply put, the unified platform that Nokia and Intel hope MeeGo will become, almost as a rule means that the user experience will no be the same across devices.
Headwinds for MeeGo are clear
So, what are the headwinds that Nokia and Intel face in trying to ensure that MeeGo receives wide-scale acceptance? Well, first, they need to build devices using MeeGo. Nokia says that it will create a version of MeeGo with a user experience on N900 series devices, while Intel says that it will create reference material for hardware manufacturers of handsets, netbooks, IPTVs using Intel technology. No specifics yet and no commitment by hardware manufacturers of note to MeeGo, but the real business question is how much Nokia and Intel can convince their hardware customers to use MeeGo instead of the existing cross-platform tools that are more ubiquitous.
Second, both Nokia and Intel will have to convince the developer community that MeeGo is a better platform than HTML 5, Silverlight, Flash/AIR, and Java ME. Convincing developers is like herding cats. While this may sound easy (after all, we are talking about Nokia and Intel), all of the existing cross-platform tools have some major advantages over MeeGo. HTML 5, for example, has major backing from both the developer community, most smart phone manufacturers, and operators–with the likes of Google, RIM, and Opera supporting HTML 5’s capabilities in offline web applications such as persistent storage, server-initiated events, and embedded SQL databases. Adobe’s goal for Flash Player 10.1 is for it to run on half of all smartphones. With about three-quarters of all handsets shipped said to be Flash-Lite capable, this goal is definitely achievable. Java ME has wide-scale acceptance by operators, handset and other electronics manufacturers. And then there is Silverlight, which has some strong cross-platform, cross-device capabilities.
The prize at the end of the day
The prize for both Nokia and Intel is not so much the licensing fees they would get from MeeGo, but the tsunami of hardware manufacturers, developers, content providers, and consumers using MeeGo (and therefore Intel and Nokia hardware) to make devices, applications, and content. In other words, it is all about making market share grow and stick into the future. Then there is the lucrative world of system integration, consulting, and application development that is yet to be created in the cross-platform, cross-device application tools segment in any real way. Clearly, Nokia and Intel see these as the reason to move ahead with MeeGo. Whether they will succeed is another matter.
Questions or comments about this column? Contact Nizar Assanie at nizar.assanie@iemarketresearch.com
The opinions expressed in this article are the true opinions of the analyst(s) and IE Market Research Corporation (IEMR) about the firm(s) and/or industry appearing in this article. Any “forward looking statements” are the best estimates and opinions of the analyst(s) and IEMR based upon information that is publicly available and that the analyst(s) and IEMR believe to be correct. There is no guarantee that forecasts appearing in this article will materialize.