NEW YORK-At a coverage cost of $7 per population equivalent-one-tenth the cost of cellular-satellite communications promise $300 million in cash flow for each 1 percent of market penetration.
That is one aspect of a positive outlook on wireless satellite telecommunications offered by Robert B. Kaimowitz, satellite communications analyst for Unterberg Harris, New York. He spoke last week at a conference here on “Space and Satellite Finance,” sponsored by the Institute for International Research.
“I am optimistic,” said Kaimowitz, who has followed the satellite industry for more than a decade. “I’ve staked my career on it.”
Of the approximately four billion people in the world today without access to telephones, he said, “I believe there are 30 million who can afford mobile satellite services (now), and 200 million who are potential MSS customers.”
These numbers don’t include the hundreds of millions of people who can afford regular telephone service right now and are on waiting lists to obtain it. “In my view, the demand for telecommunications will outstrip supply,” he said.
Whereas the cellular telephone industry spent $20 billion to meet the needs of the 250 million people in the United States, global positioning systems can address the world’s 5 billion people at a cost of $5 per person.
At a cost of $2 per person, low-earth-orbit and medium-earth-orbit satellites can cover the world, Kaimowitz said.
Added to the price advantage of satellite systems is their ability to complement terrestrial wireless and wireline telecommunications systems by filling in coverage gaps in ground-based systems, he said.
