While worldwide mobile data traffic is expected to increase 18-fold over the next five years, reaching 10.8 exabytes per month by 2016, in Brazil the rate is slightly higher with Cisco Systems predicting an 19-fold increase between 2011 and 2016. That will result in an annual growth rate of 79% in 2016 and volume of 260,268 terabytes per month in 2016.
The Cisco survey estimates the size and speed of mobile data by 2016, with the five-year forecast showing a dramatically different mobile experience for users around the world.
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Latin America is expected to follow the global trend, posting a 79% CAGR, or 18-fold increase in mobile data traffic by 2016. This is slightly more than the 75% CAGR, 17-fold increase, expected for North America, but half the 36-fold growth and 104% CAGR forecast for the Middle East and Africa. The report predicts Asia-Pacific and Central and Eastern Europe will post a 21-fold increase, and 84% and 83% CAGR respectively, with Western Europe expected to see a 68% CAGR, or 14-fold increase.
The Brazilian forecast for mobile data traffic by 2016 is estimated to be an equivalent to 24-times the volume of the whole Internet in Brazil in 2005. Cisco notes the average number of mobile connections is expected to generate 845 megabytes of mobile data traffic in 2016.
Regarding mobile video traffic, Cisco says it will grow 22-times between 2011 and 2016, reaching 196.946 terabytes, with an annual growth rate of 86%. By 2016, video might represent 76% of the entire mobile traffic in the country, compared with 63% at the end of 2011.
Cisco also predicts a 41-times increase of data traffic for smartphones between 2011 and 2016, reaching 44,151 terabytes per month in 2016, with an annual growth rate of 110%. The company believes the smartphones total data traffic in Brazil will climb from 8% in 2011 to 17% by 2016.
Worldwide mobile data traffic
Data traffic for laptops is expected to grow 12-times between 2011 and 2016, reaching 149,559 terabytes per month, representing 57% of total traffic in 2016. Tablet devices are expected to account for 14% of total mobile traffic data in 2016, while machine-to-machine could see an 16-times increase with an annual growth rate of 75% to 7,387 terabytes per month in 2016.
In Brazil, cloud traffic is expected to post a 29-fold increase between 2011 and 2016, with cloud applications representing 73% of total mobile data traffic in 2016. In late 2011, cloud services represented 47% of mobile data traffic in Brazil.
Regarding the average speed of mobile connections, Cisco notes it is expected to grow 11-times, reaching nearly 2 megabits per second in 2016. Last year, the average speed in Brazil was 179 kilobits per second.
