Reader Forum: Global spectrum conspiracy … Really!?!

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After reading a number of letters and articles recently that suggested that the upcoming spectrum crisis has been fabricated, I thought it would make sense for someone at CTIA to weigh in to the discussion. So I began to look back at the material, and to steal a line from my friend, “Really?”
Honestly, I am in disbelief that I am responding to this. Are people really arguing that there is no explosion in mobile use, or that carriers are warehousing spectrum, or that the solution will be found simply in the use of femto or pico cells, as the article attached to a recent NAB filing suggests? If so, they certainly haven’t met my family, or anyone under the age of 21.
Perhaps most outrageous is that some are saying the wireless industry is conspiring with the Chairman, the Administration, and the rest of the Federal Government to have them identify and reallocate spectrum so that my industry can spend billions of dollars on an asset that they have no intention to ever use? Again, really?!?
But let’s go with it for just a moment. If it was true, then the conspiracy is global. For those who follow our advocacy, you know that countries around the world – those that we constantly compare ourselves to when it comes to the provision of broadband – are already ahead of us when it comes to identifying additional spectrum and bringing it to market. In addition, the International Telecommunications Union has calculated that in order for countries to meet the demand for wireless service in 2020, around 1280 to 1720 megahertz of spectrum will be needed.
CTIA has consistently argued that if the United States is to maintain its leadership in the mobile space, we need to make sure that there is additional licensed spectrum in the pipeline for auction. We need action NOW to preserve our leadership going forward.
I recently had the pleasure of speaking at a conference in Seoul, South Korea, to more than a thousand people who work in the mobile and ICT sectors. I was invited by their version of the FCC (the KCC) and their key ICT trade association (KAIT) to talk about the “mobile big bang” in the United States, what their ICT members can expect based on our experiences and what their policymakers should do (or avoid doing) in order to facilitate similar growth in their mobile sector.
My point is that other countries are not standing still. They are working to create an environment so they can catch-up with the United States … and surpass us.
Even if you have been following this issue, I think it’s important to remind all of us what some of these countries have done to address the problem that some are calling “fabricated.”
Japan, which has approximately 125 million people, has 347 MHz of spectrum assigned for commercial wireless use, and has suggested that an additional 400 MHz may be on the way. The average Japanese consumer uses their wireless device 142 minutes a month according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
South Korea, which has less than 50 million people, has 290 MHz of spectrum assigned for commercial wireless use, and 140 MHz in the pipeline. The average South Korean consumer uses their device 302 minutes per month.
The United Kingdom, which has less than 62 million people, who use their devices on average 200 minutes per month, has 353 MHz assigned, and an additional 355 MHz in the pipeline.
The list continues well beyond these three countries, including Germany which recently auctioned 360 MHz of new spectrum.
The United States, which has 312 million people, who use their wireless devices on average over 800 minutes per month, has a little more than 400 MHz of spectrum for commercial use. Yet there is arguably nothing in the pipeline today that could be auctioned for immediate commercial use.
Even as the mobile wireless voice market matures, its growth is still remarkable. Indeed, the number of wireless subscribers as of year-end 2009 exceeded 285 million, representing a year-over-year increase of more than 15 million. Wireless minutes continued to increase steadily, to almost 2.3 trillion in 2009. But the real story is the growth of mobile data services, which is nothing short of amazing. Text messaging volumes increased 56% in 2009, year over year. Similarly, MMS messaging volumes more than doubled over the same time period.
Contrary to NAB, the truth is that the volume of mobile broadband traffic is exploding. That’s not surprising when you look at the growth in U.S. mobile broadband subscribership and the way that these innovative services are changing consumer behavior. Wireless high-speed subscribership reached approximately 100 million by December 2009. This is more than four times the number as of year-end 2006.
Moreover, these services are revolutionizing the way that consumers and businesses use their wireless devices. The FCC recently analyzed three independent mobile data traffic studies (from Cisco, Coda and the Yankee Group) and concluded that mobile data traffic will increase from 2009 levels by a factor of five by 2011, more than 20 times by 2013 and by 35 times by 2014.
Once again, U.S. consumers appear to be leading the way in terms of their mobile broadband usage. For example, Informa Telecoms & Media Group recently reported statistics on global data traffic from smart phone users, including those in both the U.S. and Japan. In Japan, it is predicted that smart phone data traffic will increase from 63.7 billion MBs in 2009 to 786.6 billion MBs in 2015. By contrast the U.S. growth is significantly higher, increasing from 58.5 billion MBs to 1.952 trillion MBs in 2015.
This doesn’t include the newly- and rapidly-developing world of the “Internet of Things,” such as smart grid, mHealth and mLearning. These applications will drive even greater growth in mobile broadband traffic and will further increase the need for additional spectrum resources to support these innovative services.
The point is that each of those countries has a fraction of our population, a fraction of the mobile subscribers that we have and those subscribers use their devices a fraction of what the average U.S. subscriber does. Yet their governments recognize that mobile broadband will be a key economic driver and have identified spectrum to address that future. Unfortunately, the United States government is forced to address articles, letters and filings that suggest the need for spectrum is fabricated.
Are all of these countries and all of these studies wrong? Is the United States calling for more spectrum part of a broader global spectrum conspiracy? Do I really have to answer that question?
Instead, let’s work together to make sure that the U.S. mobile ecosystem has the spectrum resources it will need to continue to lead the world in innovation. That’s a much better use of all of our time.
Guttman-McCabe is VP of regulatory affairs at CTIA.