Just when it seemed like the world had stopped making predictions about when China’s government would grant third-generation licenses to operators, reports surfaced in the Chinese press indicating that the government will make its move in February.
An article published by ShanghaiDaily.com lays out that a TD-SCDMA trial was launched in September in Beijing and a few other places with 20,000 government officials, telecom carrier staff and telecom equipment company executives. Ken Wu, deemed a senior official at the Ministry of Information Industry, is quoted as having said at a recent 3G summit in Beijing, “I use the TD-SCDMA phones and the model has proven able to surmount technology obstacles such as short battery life and overheating on long calls.”
The article then cites Chinese officials as having said that 3G licenses will be issued once the trial wraps up in February. Interestingly, Tang Ru’an, president of Datang Mobile, a company that has supported TD-SCDMA from the technology’s earliest inceptions, explained the timeline of TD-SCDMA’s launch.
“The host country is required to deploy a network 18 months ahead of the Olympics if it aims to adopt a new technology for the games. So the deadline is February,” Ru’an said.
However, the article also pointed out that China’s 3G license-granting will not touch off an all-flavor flurry of network deployments. Rather, the government is expected to allow one carrier to launch a TD-SCDMA network, with licenses for the already-proven CDMA2000 and W-CDMA technologies to be dealt with later. There was no mention of how much later, but it’s a sure bet that Chinese carriers wouldn’t mind being able to show off their 3G networks during the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The question is, what would the government like the world to see during the Olympics?
Nevertheless, Cao Shuming, an MII official in charge of 3G tests, told attendees at the Beijing 3G summit that TD-SCDMA “is now qualified for commercial use after tests on wireless networks, connection to other networks and digital antennas.”
But as ShanghaiDaily.com points out, TD-SCDMA is probably still not ready for prime time. Current Analysis analyst Peter Jarich told RCR Wireless News that the Chinese technology faces an uphill battle on several fronts.
“Cost-it will take lots time to build the scale achieved by either CDMA2000 or W-CDMA,” explained Jarich. “Maturity-it’s nice that phones deliver decent battery life and don’t overheat, but if we’re just getting to that point now, the technology is just learning to crawl. Roaming-for years, this has dogged CDMA2000, the case for TD-SCDMA will be worse. Timing-operators are already moving on HSPA and DORA (EV-DO Revision A), and by the time TD-SCDMA is close to mature, they’ll be looking seriously at LTE-TD-SCDMA will have to move quick to catch up.”
