Although Cingular Wireless L.L.C. is racing to launch a UMTS/HSDPA network in 15 to 20 markets by the end of this year, the carrier probably will face slim pickings when it comes to phones capable of taking advantage of its shiny new network. None of the world’s major handset makers have announced their HSDPA plans; indeed, most are still on their first W-CDMA phone lineups.
“It’s going to be a slow start,” cautioned Chris Ambrosio, director of the wireless device strategies service for research and consulting firm Strategy Analytics.
Industry is buzzing with the potential of HSDPA, described as the 3.5-generation evolution of W-CDMA. Cingular promises that the network will support speeds of between 400-700 kilobits per second-doubling W-CDMA speeds and outpacing the 300-500 kbps clocked on Verizon Wireless’ CDMA EV-DO network. One industry watcher pointed out that an HSDPA network could stream high-definition TV content to mobile users.
However, what’s the point of a network if there are no devices to use it?
Verizon Wireless is rolling out EV-DO capabilities in a number of markets, and plans to offer at least three EV-DO-capable devices starting next month. Already Cingular (through its acquisition of AT&T Wireless Services Inc.) offers W-CDMA services in a handful of cities, and sells W-CDMA devices from the likes of Motorola Inc., Nokia Corp. and Novatel Wireless. As the carrier upgrades the rest of its network to W-CDMA, Cingular said it will sell phones from Nokia, Motorola and LG Electronics Co. Ltd.
Although there are a variety of W-CDMA handsets from numerous vendors, there are no HSDPA devices available. In fact, none has even been announced. Indeed, this is a familiar problem in wireless technology. During the rollout of second-generation digital technology in Europe, a running joke was that GSM stood for “God, Send Mobiles.”
Nokia said HSDPA devices “are in our future plans as the industry moves in that direction,” but the company hasn’t yet provided details or timeframes for those devices. Other handset makers including Motorola, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and LG have made similar statements, and some indicated they would be able to show off some type of HSDPA product either later this year or next year.
“There’s so much effort right now on making 3G pay before they get to HSDPA,” said Alex Slawsby, a handset analyst with research and consulting firm IDC.
Slawsby said most of the worldwide wireless industry is trying to figure out how to make a serviceable return on their W-CDMA investment-and a return on that multi-billion dollar investment is by no means guaranteed. Thus, HSDPA devices are not necessarily on the front burner.
Nevertheless, those in the industry agree that a significant number of HSDPA devices will be available commercially within the next few years. Handset makers will have no choice but to support carriers and their networks.
“We think that well over half of all W-CDMA devices will be HSDPA-enabled by 2010,” Strategy Analytics’ Ambrosio said. Ambrosio said Strategy Analytics recently upped its HSDPA numbers due to Cingular’s HSDPA plans. “Rest assured, there’s not going to be a shortage of HSDPA devices by 2010.”
Strategy Analytics forecasts that there will be a smattering of HSDPA devices by the end of this year, mostly PC cards. In 2006 the firm forecasts that 3 percent of all W-CDMA devices-around 2.5 million phones-will support HSDPA networks. By 2010, Strategy Analytics predicts around 190 million HSDPA devices.
“HSDPA will certainly be deployed, we believe that,” said IDC’s Slawsby. “The carriers will demand it.”
Shiv Bakhshi, director of IDC’s wireless infrastructure group, said all of the world’s major equipment vendors are supporting HSDPA. Indeed, Qualcomm Inc. and Nortel Networks Ltd. recently completed an HSDPA test call using Nortel gear and Qualcomm’s chips. However, so far only Cingular and NTT DoCoMo Inc. in Japan have formally announced plans to launch HSDPA services. Bakhshi said Vodafone Group plc has also indicated it will likely go the HSDPA route.
“The operator commitment is an open question,” Bakhshi said, adding that once a few operators go for the technology, others will likely follow. “If one guy goes, the others have no option but to go. It’s only a question of time. I suspect most of them will do it (HSDPA).”
Cingular alone will probably have a hard time convincing the world’s handset makers to supply a large number of HSDPA devices, but if multiple carriers across the globe go for the technology, handset makers will be much more willing to fill that larger demand.
The sticking point is timing. Industry watchers agree that HSDPA devices could come in fits and starts, much like W-CDMA gadgets. The market’s desire for high-speed phones is still unproven, and the development costs for HSDPA devices are not fully known. Hence, the real market for HSDPA devices will likely depend on a number of as-yet-undetermined factors.
